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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Potpourri X

Lots of thought-provoking stuff out there, so I'll jump right into it:

NASA

  • NASA is offering content for people to develop do-it-yourself podcasts.
  • The three-year progress report for the Ares Projects is now available as a two-part video on YouTube.
  • The Great Moonbuggy Race will be running at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center this weekend.
  • The Futures Channel partnered with the Ares outreach team to develop some videos on careers at NASA.

Other Space Stuff

The Economy

  • President Obama says the U.S. Government will now cover any warranty-based maintenance for owners of GM cars. But I'm told on Facebook that I need to "calm down" because "capitalism is fine." Riiiiight.
  • Congressman Barney Frank is proposing a bill that would set caps on all employee salaries at AIG, not just the CEO. "Calm down, Bart. Capitalism is just fine." Riiiiiight.

Technology

Politics & Culture

  • One of my favorite Law & Order actresses, Angie Harmon, is sick of being called a "racist" because she disagrees with President Obama's policies. Welcome to the club, Angie. I got this accusation shortly after Election Day, and still find it offensive.
  • Venezuela-born Miss Universe had a great time at Guantanamo Bay.
  • Some advice for Gen Yers entering the workforce in Washington.
  • Hat tip to D2 for this item on evaluating "employee engagement" in the workplace.
  • Darlene the Science Cheerleader has been in contact with a congressman interested in reviving the Office of Technology Assessment.
  • On the lighter side of things, a man in Ohio was arrested for driving drunk on a motorized bar stool.
  • An interesting question from one of my acquaintances on LinkedIn.com:

"Is the concept of "Tough Love" at the root of society's problems or is it their answer?"

Some argue "spare the rod, spoil the child" and it seems to me that the underlying philosophy in this also lies in some of the advice on how best to deal with the current economic crisis. But is the deterministic righteousness of tough love the root problem in many and diverse areas of our societies, or is it rather the belief in the "Noble Savage" and laissez-faire indulgence? Or are both just perversions of love, part self-loathing part narcissism?

  • An interesting video on the mayor of Missassauga, Ontario. We should all be so good at 88!
  • I got hip-deep into a long conversation about capitalism, Obama, etc. on Facebook last night ("Calm down, Bart..."), so I decided to change my status as a way of getting free of the argument. I changed my status to "Bart is moving on to another topic." Some FB friends offered the following alternatives:
    --"I've got a topic...Socialism"
    --"How about the right to privacy issues?"
    --"Eminent domain?"
    --"The topic is me. All about me! ME, ME, ME!!!!"

    The last answer was offered by my buddy Gwen. I opted for her answer, as I was too tired at that point to offer alternatives. I promised I'd address some of these in the blog. I will, just not right now. More to come...

Monday, March 30, 2009

I Want Capitalism Back

This article on the Obama Administration's follow-up to TARP is worth reading, particularly this:

But wait, it is now not just the recipients of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money and other taxpayer funds who are to be regulated. According to "sources," the White House is considering salary controls for "all financial institutions" and "publicly traded companies," not just those receiving "federal bailout money."
What's more, the feds intend to impose this by fiat, meaning regulations not legislation. When the government controls your salary, control over your financial compensation is not far behind.

Workers at GM think they're being treated worse under the Obama administration than they were under straightforward GM management.

*

I wrote this in response to a reader, but apparently it needs to be repeated. Those of you who hate the "power of big business" need to remember that said power, however financially impressive, is nothing compared to the power of the government. Businesses are nothing if they don't provide goods and services that customers want. On the flip side of this, government had more direct control over people because they control the laws, and those laws are enforced by regulations, police, courts, taxes, and when all else fails, the point of a gun. Businesses cannot do any of these things legally.

Occasionally I get retorts like, "Big business runs the government because they've got money and lobbyists and they 'own' senators." This requires re-explaining as well. Yes, businesses have lobbyists. Yes, those lobbyists make contributions to various members of Congress and Senators' campaign funds. But they cannot enforce their wishes. A member of Congress can accept a donation one day, and then turn around and vote for a bill that harms the donor's interests the next. And if the government really was so beholden to big businesses, then why are those businesses subject to the highest corporate taxes in the Western world? Why must they spend money for things like ADA, OSHA, EPA, FICA, benefits, etc.? All of those are huge expenses that interfere with profits. If businesses' lobbyists "control" the government, then they should be fired, because they're doing a poor job of it.

And then there's this angle: up until the 1930s, business lobbyists weren't really necessary because Washington didn't control that much of the economy. There was no need to have high-powered lawyers and professional persuaders in $1,000 suits walking the halls of Congress to protect their interests. Government power has since centralized in Washington, and that's why the lobbyists were necessary--as protection.

A liberal friend just posted on Facebook,

[X] thinks that firing Wagoner was just the start. In every revolution, heads gotta roll ...

To which I responded, "Revolutions are great until it's your ox being gored." Obviously I didn't vote for Obama. But I'm willing to bet that even people who voted him did not vote for a revolution, just a change in policies. And to follow on to my response, revolutions can consume their own. It's always cool to "get even" with whoever the revolutionaries think is the bad guy until suddenly YOU'RE the one labeled as the bad guy. For examples of this sort of behavior, see the history of the French Revolution and Russian Revolution.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Why a Bailout is Bad, and Why CEOs Shouldn't Accept One

The GM CEO has resigned at the behest of the Obama administration: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20625.html

How dumb do these folks have to be? Maybe some of these CEOs and companies do deserve to go under. First there's the salary cap, which cuts off any future earnings for you and eventually everyone else. Then there are all the conditions the government places on how you have to spend the money--or NOT spend it. Now there's the threat of actually losing your job! And if you really can't figure out what to do with the bailout money, and you tank your company anyway, where's the upside?

The individuals who figure out how to keep businesses profitable in the midst of this mess--CEOs, consultants, whoever--should be allowed to make whatever the heck they want. And President Obama should, in turn, leave them and their companies the heck alone to rebuild the economy.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

DVD Review: The Lives of Others

I don't have a lot to say about The Lives of Others, though I highly recommend it. It won an Academy Award for best foreign language film in 2007. The Lives of Others follows the activities of a member of the East German State Security (Stasi) in 1984 as he begins listening in on a socialist playwright for possible thought crimes against the state. The movie serves as an insight into life under the Iron Curtain, and demonstrates that the only way to be morally good as a human being under those states was to break the law. If you speak German, you might pick up some of the subtleties; if you're a subtitle reader, it won't distract after the first five minutes. The story explains why conservatives are so concerned about socialism today, and why the lesson of the Cold War needs to be relearned every generation. Worth watching!




Book Review: The Watchmen

My buddy Doc recommended that I read The Watchmen and see the movie that is based on it. Being a literary purist, I decided to read the comic book (ahem, sorry, graphic novel) first. Okay, so let's have it: what is The Watchmen all about? Well, if you've seen the commercials and haven't read the book, you know that it has something to do with costumed superheroes. Right. That's sort of like saying Star Wars has something to do with space adventure: that doesn't even cover the half of it. Just as George Lucas tried to reinvent the Saturday afternoon space opera matinee, Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons took great pains to reinvent the costumed superhero story.

It is 1985, but it is a slightly different variant. Costumed heroes (regular people) and superheroes (people with superhuman abilities) have changed the world through their interventions in history. Eventually, they are hounded out of the business by the Nixon Administration in 1977, which passes a law all but outlawing "the masks." These are not the usual Batman, Superman, and other Justice League heroes I grew up with--sorry, fellow geek readers, I'm a DC guy, not a Marvel fan. These are just a new set of heroes that Moore and Gibbons created to show some of the silliness but also some of the outright danger of having costumed vigilantes on the street, fighting crime.

The golden age of the heroes in this timeline is from the 1940s to the 1960s. They fall out of favor despite helping to win the Vietnam War and bring down all the costumed supervillains. Some have become official agents of the U.S. Government, some have taken straight jobs, some have gone outlaw. The ones still operating are mostly right-wing sociopaths, extremely violent, and creatures to be feared rather than admired. I don't anticipate the movie being much different.

It took me awhile to realize how groundbreaking this book was until I started to realize how much impact it has had. Its habit of including newspaper clippings can be found in Batman: A Death in the Family and DC's The Golden Age. The licensing/agent provocateur status of the heroes can be found in Frank Miller's The Dark Knight Returns. The outlawing of the heroes can be found in The Dark Knight Returns and the Disney/Pixar film, The Incredibles. And so forth. So The Watchmen obviously changed a lot about how the traditional Marvel/DC comics portrayed their heroes, for better or worse. This new anti-heroic look at costumed superheroes can be traced to this book, which was originally a series.

Is it any good? That depends on your point of view. I found it dark, disturbing, and quite at variance with some comics I've read, very much the birth place of others. Do you want your heroes to be more "human," more "realistic?" I guess it depends on your definition of realism. Do I discount the dark side of human nature? Hardly. But what if you want your heroes to be brave, admirable actors for good? I happen to hold the latter view. In that case, The Watchmen is a paradigm shift, but it is a shift toward anti-heroism, which the comic book universes had, until the mid-'80s, tried hard to resist.

Perhaps I'm an idealist, but I still want my heroes to be good, to be people who, if not perfect, are at least a little better than myself to serve as an example of some better morality to strive for in life. After all, if your heroes are just as bad as the bad guys, why should you care if they win? What is protected? What is affirmed? What is gained? I might go see the movie, but I've already got a good idea of what it will be about--and it's not particularly good...at least as we used to understand the word.

Potpourri IX

Someone created a ripoff on the Ken Burns-style "mockumentary" about the "Old Negro Space Program." Can't say I'm thrilled with it. (Warning: extensive profanity): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6xJzAYYrX8

Look out: iPod prices are going up: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/gigaom/media/2009_03_26_variable_itunes_pricing_to_take_effect_on_april_7.html

Important information for those of you concerned about the effectiveness of your aluminum foil hat to block government transmissions affecting your brain: http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/

Climate change efforts could result in major wealth transfers: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,510937,00.html

Sealand’s offshore data center
http://www.thewhir.com/web-hosting-news/euro-havenco

Sun Microsystems’ modular 2 petabyte data center in a shipping container
http://www.sun.com/products/sunmd/s20/

Marshall Space Flight Center's friction stir welding machine on Wired.com
http://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/17-04/st_tool

Retired construction worker thinks he knows how Stonehenge was built: http://j-walkblog.com/index.php?/weblog/posts/moving_big_rocks

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Trends I'm Watching

When I get the urge to write fiction, I start sniffing around the books on my shelf, the trends in the news, and the things that drive me up the wall, and then see if I can find a character to throw into a problem based on them. Nothing's coming to mind right now, but here are some of the things I'm tracking:

  • Financial, educational, political, cultural, and geographical separations between different IQ groups (The Bell Curve).
  • The Singularity: accelerating advances in artificial intelligence, genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
  • Micro-media outlets: bloggers are becoming the new journalists. Democratization of the media with consequent declines in accuracy and objectivity, with people willingly paying for good, high-quality or high-accuracy media content.
  • "Imperial" armed forces in the West divided into attack ("Leviathan") and constabulary/occupation ("Systems Administration") forces.
  • Declining abilities of nation-states to provide for the general welfare of their citizens; more privatizing of basic services (The Shield of Achilles).
  • Globalized market continues rapid dispersal of ideas, goods, and services, but also diseases, crimes, and terrorists.
  • Space likely to remain an aristocrat's sport, with "aristocrats" defined as super-competent astronauts or super-rich tourists.
  • Declining local cultures in Asia and Latin America; increasing vibrancy of local cultures in Europe.
  • Demographic decline in Western cultures.
  • Increasing science and engineering proficiency in India and China (The World is Flat).
  • Declining science and engineering proficiency in the U.S. (Rising Above the Gathering Storm).
Potpourri VIII

More interesting stuff out there...
  • First up: One of my customers, Steve Davis the Deputy Mission Manager for Ares I-X, will be giving a presentation on Ares I-X at Wissahickon High School in Ambler, Pennsylvania next week. The event is free and open to the public. The flyer can be found here.
  • Futuristic Fashions making an impact.
  • More young people looking to civil service careers.
  • A skull was found in Italy which shows signs of being "excorised" to combat vampires.
  • Eminent physicist Freeman Dyson on global warming.
  • California might ban black cars.
  • Don't Panic: Yet another reason to worry about the future: solar storms.
  • Marshall Space Flight Center Director David King retiring from NASA.

Two Cultures Event in NY

This just came over the wire from Darlene the Science Cheerleader. If you have no idea what the "Two Cultures" book is all about, see my review here: http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/01/book-review-two-cultures-c.html

Come meet me in NYC on May 9th at the NY Academy of Sciences. I’m one of the speakers at the Two Cultures event, described below by Shawn Otto, CEO of ScienceDebate.org:

We live in a time when more scientists are being trained than ever before, with nearly 30,000 science PhDs awarded in 2006. Yet scientists find themselves frustrated by inaccurate media coverage, poor science education, public science illiteracy, a resurgence of anti-evolutionism, and challenges to scientific expertise on issues like climate change.

In his seminal lecture, “The Two Cultures,” delivered on May 7, 1959, the British ovelist, physicist, and government science adviser C.P. Snow famously decried a “gulf of mutual incomprehension between science and the humanities.” For Snow, this rift was “a sheer loss to us all.”

In an age when the world’s greatest challenges revolve around questions of science and technology, in a world governed by policymakers and a public sometimes unaware of science’s role in dealing with those challenges, this rift can undermine political will and the ability to solve them. This rift is the focus of our work at Science Debate.

On May 9, 2009 visionaries, scientists, authors, and the media will join together to explore the persistence of the “two cultures” gap and how it can be overcome. Don’t miss this unique and important event, featuring keynote addresses by Pulitzer Prize winner E.O. Wilson, former Congressman John Porter, and Segway inventor and entrepreneur Dean Kamen, and panelists including Matthew Chapman, Darlene Cavalier, Ann Druyan, Ira Flatow, Lawrence Krauss, Kenneth Miller, Shawn Otto, Stuart Pimm, Corey Powell, Andrew Revkin, and many others, cosponsored by the New York Academy of Sciences, Science & The City, the Science Communication Consortium, ScienceDebate.Org, and our media sponsor, Discover Magazine. The moderators include Science Debate’s Chris Mooney & Sheril Kirshenbaum, co-authors of the forthcoming book Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens Our Future.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Potpourri VII


The Airborne Laser (ABL) is finally ready for its first test, and is likely to get cut. Go figure. http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/03/budget-latest.html


Need a REALLY big HDTV? Check this out: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/03/ny-yankees-new.html


An F-22 Raptor has crashed at Edwards AFB. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hmfwSyhmPuqX414lfoKORbnZN9sAD9757L8O0


Here's a letter of resignation from an AIG vice president that got turned into a New York Times op-ed. I admit to being surprised that they published this: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/25/opinion/25desantis.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper


A British member of the European parliament took it to the UK's Labour Prime Minister. The direct talk of this man's speech makes me realize why the UK Parliament is much more entertaining and enlightening than C-SPAN's coverage of the U.S. Congress: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs


The Teaching Company was giving away a freebie today. Thought I'd share: http://www.teach12.com/ttcx/figs.aspx?FigsID=FIG0166&ai=34743&WT.mc_id=FIG20090325


Should White House employees keep their bonuses? Here's my simple answer, for the sake of clarity and consistency: no. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/should-white-house-employees-keep-bonuses/


Is technology a threat to liberal society? An answer from Irving Kristol: http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.12624/pub_detail.asp

I've been meaning to post this grid for awhile. It's Jerry Pournelle's take on political positions--"beyond left and right," as it were. Its components are a person's or nation's attitudes toward the state and the person's or nation's attitudes towards rationalism. I can be found in the "Various Libertarians" oval, for what it's worth.


A War By Any Other Name

So now the Pentagon has gone PC...or something. It's no longer the Global War on Terror (GWOT), which was descriptive, if slightly inaccurate (you fight people, not a method). It's now called the Overseas Contingency Operation, which will no doubt soon be acronymized into OCO.

Robert A. Heinlein said it well in Glory Road: "You're just as dead from a police action as you are from a full-scale war." So why mince words? Well, the GWOT itself was a mincing of words. They could have called it the "War on Fundamentalist Islamism" or the "Black September War," or the "War on al-Qaeda," but that would create political trouble, presumably. Instead of Operation Enduring Freedom, they might've chosen "Operation Terrible Resolve," but no one asked me. And a "War on al-Qaeda" would not explain the war in Iraq--at least not as originally cast. Maybe the "War on People Who Attack Us or Threaten to Do So?" Or the "War to Change the Middle East?"

I've got to admit, I'm stumped. The Bush Doctrine of preemptive strikes, denying/destroying terrorist bases, and regime change is part punitive, part transformative, part instructive.

"When will you stop invading us?"
"When you learn to choose better leaders!"

--Exchange between a leader of the Dominican Republic and Woodrow Wilson

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

More on Social Media

Tip o' the fedora (The Weekly Standard uses a homburg for their hat tips) to Nick Skytland for his many links on this topic today.

Federal employees' uses of social media: http://socialfeds.com/

Making NASA science data available to the general public: http://wiki.nasa.gov/cm/blog/chrisckemp

Microsoft challenging Google in sharing NASA data: http://venturebeat.com/2009/03/24/microsoft-teams-with-nasa-to-challenge-google-in-the-new-space-race/

If you need the attention, here's a list of people who will follow you if you follow them on Twitter: http://socialnewswatch.com/top-twitter-users/

"Crowdsourced" rules for success: http://thelaunchpad.xprize.org/2009/03/recap-crowd-sourced-rules-for-success.html

Private-Sector Solutions to Future Credit Messes

I probably should have focused on solutions instead of slapping around an editorial by Obama. Okay, so it goes:

  • Give people frequent flyer or bonus miles for paying their bills, not racking them up.
  • Allow banks to set and advertise their own leverage numbers in accordance with their risk level and investment portfolio.
    Example: Bank A, focusing on high-risk investments, is leveraged at 15:1 or 20:1, and their disclaimers state as much. Bank B, focusing on more traditional blue-chip investments, is leveraged at 5:1 or 10:1, tops. Bank C, focusing more on individuals with passbook savings accounts or living on fixed incomes, is leveraged at 2:1, 1:1, or less, meaning that the bank will only loan money if they have it to spare--100% of the depositors would always be able to withdraw all their money, if they saw fit.
  • Start a stockholder revolt focused on executive compensation. I've been complaining for years about the Sisters of Mercy and their never-ending stockholder proposals to stop Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and other defense contractors from selling arms to countries that don't like us. I complain about this because the right place to address this issue is with your congressmen and senators and the president. Likewise, just as you shouldn't appeal to the business world to address political matters, you shouldn't be petitioning government to fix problems with corporate governance. And the compensation issue is a governance issue, not a political issue (until the government takes over the business). Having said all that, the focus of the revolt should be to tie awards of all optional compensation, including stock options and bonuses, to specific, measurable performance outcomes, including short-term growth, long-term growth, and ethical compliance.

Other things will come to me, and I welcome other thoughts, but I have a caveat--I'm interested in solutions that can be executed without the need for additional government regulation.

More on the Economy

I have left the economy and President Obama alone (like he cares) to focus on more interesting things. However, he continues to take direct action to make the economy he inherited from Bush worse. Let's start with this op-ed Mr. Obama wrote, and which posted in only three newspapers in the U.S. (the Baltimore Sun, Chicago Tribune, and Los Angeles Times). The other papers that received the posting were all overseas. He's the President of the United States, and he has important things to say to the world. Wouldn't you think it would appear in every paper in this country? It's not like it wouldn't get out via the Internet to other locations, but jeez, that works both ways--an email from the POTUS would get top billing everywhere. So, again: why the directed posting? Might as well read it now, before it disappears:

We are living through a time of global economic challenges that cannot be met by half measures or the isolated efforts of any nation.

Translation: Obama believes that the activist stance he's taken on the economy here needs to be taken globally. If Obama considers his first budget (over $3 trillion) a "half-measure," one can only feebly guess what a full measure of activism will look like. Yow.

Now, the leaders of the Group of 20 have a responsibility to take bold, comprehensive and coordinated action that not only jump-starts recovery, but also launches a new era of economic engagement to prevent a crisis like this from ever happening again.

"Bold, comprehensive, and coordinated action." Translation: He's giving a green light to the leaders of the world to soak their local rich people.

No one can deny the urgency of action. A crisis in credit and confidence has swept across borders, with consequences for every corner of the world. For the first time in a generation, the global economy is contracting and trade is shrinking.

Actually, there are many folks who could deny the need for urgency when it comes to government action. As I've written before, this economic slowdown was no worse than some recessions seen in the last 25 years, and none of those situations required a massive, unprecedented government intervention in the market.

Trillions of dollars have been lost, banks have stopped lending, and tens of millions will lose their jobs across the globe. The prosperity of every nation has been endangered, along with the stability of governments and the survival of people in the most vulnerable parts of the world.

Way to encourage us and talk about hope, Mr. President.

Once and for all, we have learned that the success of the American economy is inextricably linked to the global economy. There is no line between action that restores growth within our borders and action that supports it beyond.

True. But more to the point, the global economy is dependent upon the American economy. If our economy starts turning ugly due to government takeovers of businesses, people will stop investing here. So when Obama does things that are bad for the American economy, like spending three trillion dollars we don't have and does not exist, that harms the global economy.

If people in other countries cannot spend, markets dry up -- already we've seen the biggest drop in American exports in nearly four decades, which has led directly to American job losses. And if we continue to let financial institutions around the world act recklessly and irresponsibly, we will remain trapped in a cycle of bubble and bust. That is why the upcoming London Summit is directly relevant to our recovery at home.

So if you know that some banks are behaving badly but individuals need to spend, why not just give individual private citizens a big chunk of change ($5-10,000) and let the bad banks fail?

My message is clear: The United States is ready to lead, and we call upon our partners to join us with a sense of urgency and common purpose. Much good work has been done, but much more remains.

Translation: This is my economy, and I'm not through tinkering with it yet.

Our leadership is grounded in a simple premise: We will act boldly to lift the American economy out of crisis and reform our regulatory structure, and these actions will be strengthened by complementary action abroad. Through our example, the United States can promote a global recovery and build confidence around the world; and if the London Summit helps galvanize collective action, we can forge a secure recovery, and future crises can be averted.

Translation: If you think you can go overseas to get away from my policies, think again, pal. I'm going to ask every nation on Earth to do things my way.

Our efforts must begin with swift action to stimulate growth. Already, the United States has passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act -- the most dramatic effort to jump-start job creation and lay a foundation for growth in a generation.

Stimulus is not working. Banks refuse to loan, businesses refuse to spend, and consumers refuse to spend because they're afraid of what might happen next. "Dramatic" is accurate. The stimulus is not jump-starting job creation, except on a temporary basis within government agencies--for instance, ACORN is looking to get some work supervising the Census.

Other members of the G-20 have pursued fiscal stimulus as well, and these efforts should be robust and sustained until demand is restored. As we go forward, we should embrace a collective commitment to encourage open trade and investment, while resisting the protectionism that would deepen this crisis.

And stimulus isn't working overseas, either. Protectionism is almost inevitable, as every government must protect the jobs of its own citizens first.

Second, we must restore the credit that businesses and consumers depend upon. At home, we are working aggressively to stabilize our financial system. This includes an honest assessment of the balance sheets of our major banks, and will lead directly to lending that can help Americans purchase goods, stay in their homes and grow their businesses.

This must continue to be amplified by the actions of our G-20 partners. Together, we can embrace a common framework that insists upon transparency, accountability and a focus on restoring the flow of credit that is the lifeblood of a growing global economy. And the G-20, together with multilateral institutions, can provide trade finance to help lift up exports and create jobs.

Again, the major banks are not loaning. They're trying to find a new level at which to leverage their assets. A loan-to-asset ratio of 30:1 is obviously too much, so they're holding onto their assets and reassessing what how much they're willing to loan out to businesses. He can talk a good game about getting foreign banks and nations to encourage trade, but they're as paralyzed as the U.S.

Third, we have an economic, security and moral obligation to extend a hand to countries and people who face the greatest risk. If we turn our backs on them, the suffering caused by this crisis will be enlarged, and our own recovery will be delayed because markets for our goods will shrink further and more American jobs will be lost.

I wonder if the countries and people who face the greatest risk also happen to be the ones who don't pay their bills.

The G-20 should quickly deploy resources to stabilize emerging markets, substantially boost the emergency capacity of the International Monetary Fund and help regional development banks accelerate lending. Meanwhile, America will support new and meaningful investments in food security that can help the poorest weather the difficult days that will come.

Yes, by all means, let's do a bailout for even more organizations.

While these actions can help get us out of crisis, we cannot settle for a return to the status quo. We must put an end to the reckless speculation and spending beyond our means; to the bad credit, over-leveraged banks and absence of oversight that condemns us to bubbles that inevitably bust.

There is some truth here. However, if you allow people and banks to fail and learn from the consequences of failure, wouldn't that be a better deterrent than bailing them out and teaching them nothing? I don't believe more government regulation would help. I'd like to see what Goldman Sachs does to encourage internal reform after they return their federal bailout money.

Here's a simple way to encourage responsibility, which I've been pushing since at least 2000: Give people frequent flyer or bonus miles for paying their bills, not racking them up.

Only coordinated international action can prevent the irresponsible risk-taking that caused this crisis. That is why I am committed to seizing this opportunity to advance comprehensive reforms of our regulatory and supervisory framework.

The argument against this is rather like the argument against having a nationalized school or healthcare system. If you have only one solution or system for everybody, and that solution or system is wrong, then everybody suffers. Instead, individual countries, states, and businesses should be allowed to experiment to see what works. Some experiments might fail, but successful experiments can be copied as well. That's part of the joy of the diversity of the market. If the government IS the market, there is no diversity, and everyone rises or falls at the whims of those in power.

All of our financial institutions -- on Wall Street and around the globe -- need strong oversight and common sense rules of the road. All markets should have standards for stability and a mechanism for disclosure. A strong framework of capital requirements should protect against future crises. We must crack down on offshore tax havens and money laundering.

There is some truth in this. Capitalism survives best in an environment where the rule of law is exercised consistently and fairly. Unfortunately, Obama's policies are neither. His bailouts are going to specific businesses, just as his party is threatening specific individuals within those businesses with mob-like behavior. I'm not for money laundering, so I'll let that item stand as is. However, I like it how the offshore tax havens bit is thrown in at the end, like an afterthought. This is why the issue in Switzerland matters. Obama is determined to prevent people with money from moving that money overseas to avoid his impending higher taxes. If the taxes were lower here, people wouldn't need the tax havens because they'd be willing to pay the lower rates. The same applies with income taxes, though I doubt Obama is a fan of the Laffer Curve anyway.

Rigorous transparency and accountability must check abuse, and the days of out-of-control compensation must end. Instead of patchwork efforts that enable a race to the bottom, we must provide the clear incentives for good behavior that foster a race to the top.

Now I still don't understand why some companies are willing to give bonuses to executives that have run the company into the ground. That's a battle I'll need to fight on my own as a stockholder. However, it is still the company's business as to who gets paid what. It is not the government's business. I happen to be one of those people who would like to be rich someday. There have to be private-sector means of curbing the spending of good money on bad behavior. I'd rather see a stockholder revolt than a taxpayer revolt. One item makes the business page. The other makes the front page, and usually involves bloodshed.

I know that America bears our share of responsibility for the mess that we all face. But I also know that we need not choose between a chaotic and unforgiving capitalism and an oppressive government-run economy. That is a false choice that will not serve our people or any people.

"We need not choose between a chaotic and unforgiving capitalism and an oppressive government-run economy." Ah, the eternal lure of the "Third Way." Clinton tried it, and had to back off after the '94 elections. We already have Third Way thinking in America: it's called the welfare state. That's where a large, capitalist society willingly accepts high taxes to provide long-term relief and support of poor people in the form of transfers of wealth.

This G-20 meeting provides a forum for a new kind of global economic cooperation. Now is the time to work together to restore the sustained growth that can only come from open and stable markets that harness innovation, support entrepreneurship and advance opportunity.

Anyone else bothered by the notion of "harnessing" innovation?

The nations of the world have a stake in one another. The United States is ready to join a global effort on behalf of new jobs and sustainable growth. Together, we can learn the lessons of this crisis, and forge a prosperity that is enduring and secure for the 21st century.

"Join me, I am popular and know what to do!" Well, we can only hope. Unfortunately, Mr. Obama is more focused on government controls than private-sector prosperity. I am not inspired. And I still want to know why this op-ed wasn't posted elsewhere. It's not like most of America's newspapers would turn him away.

Sunday, March 22, 2009


Film About Ray Kurzweil's Ideas

Hat tip to Darlene for finding this...

Transcendent Man, a documentary on the life and ideas of Ray Kurzweil, will premiere on April 25 at the prestigious Tribeca Film Festival in New York City ..





See details below for how to get to one of the premiere screenings.

Director Barry Ptolemy traveled to five countries and followed Ray Kurzweil for two years, documenting Kurzweil's journey to bring the ideas from his best-selling book The Singularity is Near to a world audience. Ptolemy expertly explores the social and philosophical implications of the transformative changes that Kurzweil predicts and their intertwined promise and peril, in dialogues with world leaders such as Colin Powell; technologists Hugo de Garis, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Warwick, and Dean Kamen; journalists Kevin Kelly and Tom Abate; and luminary Stevie Wonder. Award-winning American composer Philip Glass composed the original theme music, which mirrors the depth and intensity of the film.

The movie trailer can be seen at
http://www.TranscendentMan.com.

Tribeca is one of the four leading film festivals in the world. Only 24 movies (12 documentaries and 12 narrative movies) are selected to premiere and compete at Tribeca, out of more than 2,200 movies submitted for consideration. Transcendent Man was one of only two documentaries discussed by the New York Times in its coverage of the upcoming Tribeca festival.

A sample of the extensive coverage of the upcoming premiere:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS62195+10-Mar-2009+BW20090310
The world premiere will be on Saturday evening, April 25 at 8 pm. The Tuesday, April 28 screening will be followed by a unique Tribeca event: a panel discussion with Director Barry Ptolemy and Ray Kurzweil, moderated by NPR and ABC correspondent Robert Krulwich.

If you would like to be informed when and where tickets are available, please sign up at
http://transcendentman.com/moreinfo.php.

Space Advocacy, Philosophy, &Religion

Fair warning: this essay touches on two things most likely to irritate you--politics and religion. Ignore it such things bother you. Other readers consider yourself warned.

I keep getting invites to an organization called the Space Renaissance Initiative (hereafter the SRI). Now I know several of the people who have been inviting me, if by "know" you mean "are acquainted with their viewpoints via Facebook or other sites on the internet." To my knowledge no one I know personally has invited me, though several folks I've met have joined.

I've decided to touch the third rail of space advocacy because this has become a point of concern and contention in my own mind. Before I start opening fire, here are a couple of links to help you understand what I'm responding to:

What Was the Renaissance?

First, I do understand the impetus for and positive outcomes of the Renaissance and Humanism. Europe experienced a resurgence of Greek and Roman learning after the Turks sacked Constantinople in 1453. The Greek scholars there found new homes in the trading cities of Venice, Genoa, and Florence, bringing with them ancient texts and art forms that were radically different from the forms current in feudalism. The spread of Greek and Roman philosophies reignited ancient notions of independence, freedom, democracy, and art. This rebirth of Greek and Roman learning allowed the Italian city-states to become rich and foster the great geniuses of the time: Michelangelo, Raphael, DaVinci, Machiavelli, etc. Meanwhile, Southern Europe got back in touch with ancient Graeco-Roman learning, Northern Europe was getting back in touch with the essential truths of the Bible, which reforming Protestants like Martin Luther felt the Popes had lost to opulence and power-seeking. This led to a less centralized, more individualistic Christianity in Germany, Denmark, Scandinavia, and eventually Great Britain.

I also understand some of their downsides. Catholics and Protestants fought some of their nastiest wars during the Renaissance, including the Thirty Years War, which wiped out a large chunk of the population of Germany. In response to the Reformation, the Catholic Church excommunicated the Protestants like Luther and invoked the Inquisition on those who were deviating from the edicts of Rome. Et cetera, et cetera. Christianity splintered in the wake of this massive religious and political conflict.

The Renaissance, in turn, led to the Enlightenment, which brought forth notions of popular freedom and atheism as widespread doctrines—one can see two results from that experiment by reading the histories of the American and French Revolutions.

Why Create a Space Renaissance?

I believe the SRI folks hope to invoke the Renaissance because they see how the exploration of the New World brought wealth and the ability to afford new luxuries and arts to the Old World. In truth, the gold and new foods from the Americas contributed to the changes I already mentioned above. And it should be noted that Portugal and Spain "found" the Americas as a way to avoid the land route through the Ottomon Empire--colonizing a New World was not their original intention. The Renaissance, then, was a time of dynamism thanks to old ideas being reborn in Western culture at the same time that new ideas, wealth, and products were arriving from America.

America experienced a Renaissance of its own in the 1960s as old ideas of middle-class life and radical ideas of cultural life were at war at home while the nation itself was fighting imperial collectivism overseas by the Soviet Union. The decision to go to the Moon resulted in a radical transformation of American science and technology, and we have been living off of that dramatic inheritance since the end of Project Apollo in 1972. But, again, the adventure into space was a reflection of, not always a cause of, advances and changes already underway. And you could make an argument that the cultural warriors of the 1960s won that particular war, because while science and technology continue to advance, further adventures in space and other technical developments (e.g. nuclear power) have been curtailed in favor of "more important things here on Earth" or the more "environmentally friendly" ethos of the Baby Boomers.

Some questions come to mind, then. Using historical analogies are always tricky, especially with postmodernism calling everything into question. Which parts of the Renaissance would they seek to invoke? The parts that dethroned God and religion from the center of our culture? They're a little late. Today's culture warriors are doing their best to hasten religion off the stage, so there's little need to give that change any more support.

Do they seek a return to older forms of art and philosophy? That might be of some value. The Greeks and Romans had some very bright things to say about the human condition, and their views of aesthetics were much more tasteful than much of what's coming out of the art schools these days (I speak here of political art--the stuff that is put out there to deliberately offend and provoke--there are still folks who adhere to creating things that are pleasing to the eye). And a little Christian humility might behoove some of the technophiles who would try to "perfect" humanity through technology.

Do they seek a return to adventure? Ah! I think this is what they had in mind. The Age of Discovery, led by adventurers like daGama, Columbus, Vespucci, Magellan, etc., created great advances in Europe's knowledge of the world. Those advances in turn brought new advances in the technologies needed to further explore and settle the places explored. And unlike non-European Earth, the rest of the solar system is so-far uninhabited. However, anyone who dares to invoke such an age must now face up to the fact that Christopher Columbus is considered a villain by post-colonialism historians 500 years after his landing at San Salvador. To invoke the glory days of Europe is to reassert the right of cultural (or any other type of) imperialism. Are the SRI folks prepared to fight that battle? If so, I wish them luck.

Do We Need a Space Amendment to the Constitution?

Next, as far as the proposed amendment to the Constitution (I presume they mean the U.S. Constitution--they never really come out and say it), the authors imply that the Constitution as currently written prevents human travel into space. I dispute that. Is the goal to ensure that private citizens, not just civil service astronauts get to go? If so, they need to be explicit. I’m convinced that many provisions in the Constitution have been warped over the last 200+ years because the Founders didn’t think to state the obvious negative corollaries to their principles.

Establishing a New Philosophy

Finally, there is the very long Concepts for a New Humanistic World. I must presume, based on the impressive length of the document, that they seek to create a new philosophy for space, forged out of whatever they see as the best of older philosophies. Clearly they're focusing on philosophy and "evolution" (cultural or biological--it's hard to tell). God and religion are almost completely absent from this document, and that is what bothers me the most.

Side note: I am, perhaps, an increasing minority in the space advocacy community: a conservative churchgoer who believes in exploring space and using the knowledge found there to improve life here. It's been my experience that many Christian sects emphasize the next life more than this one (after all, you really can't take it with you). However, I derive from my faith my desire to use space to do good for my fellow man, not as a means of earning merit toward Heaven, just as something that should be done as a positive good. No doubt someone will correct me, no matter what position I take.

Returning to the Concepts...As near as I can tell, the writers of this document are a mix of pro-science, pro-technology, pro-free market, but also pro-multiculturalism advocates. I say this because the document includes aspects of all of these, and not surprisingly, the document often contradicts itself. For example, Section PC.1100, the "Cultural Openness declaration," states:

We are for cultural Openness, without discrimination based on skin colour, gender, religion, or creed, except where these are themselves anti-Human! We apply the concept of Open World in all aspects of human activities and relations.

I have no argument with this. However, there are cultures that are not so enlightened. What does the SRI propose be done about other cultures that don't share Western notions of equality under the law?

PC.1300, "The Cosmic Destiny," is similarly problematic:

We propose a Cosmic Destiny for the Human Species. Unconscious life expands to occupy all available niches: yet, it's unable to escape extinctions imposed by the natural cycles of the parent planet. Only Intelligent Life can now prevail, thanks to technology, taking beyond the blue planet its civilization and its culture, gardening the otherwise empty and barren spaces.

Are they proposing some sort of new "manifest destiny" for humanity? What if they encounter non-intelligent life on other worlds? Does the New Humanist view support shunting aside life forms below a certain threshold of intelligence? Mind you, I'm partial to expanding humans to Mars myself, slime molds, or no slime molds, but it'd be best if they just come right out and say that.

HE.1900 says,

We are for a politics of controlled growth, able to keep the growth positive, and not in collision with the available resources and environment.

However, this doesn't square with their desire for the freedom of individuals to achieve any end they want to reach their potential. So, are they promoting capitalism or something different?

HE.2100 says,

In the next century, the number of human beings should be controlled within limits sustainable, beyond the ecosystem of Earth alone!

However, PC.300 acknowledges

that Life strives to penetrate, occupy and utilize all locales within its reach to further its survival and expansion. We defend the right, for Humanity, to accede to a greater ecological niche.

and then there's PL.1100...

We reject and condemn any repressive political practices that prohibit the freedoms of expression and the rights to life, happiness, prosperity and justice.

So how am I to interpret this--it's okay to expand the domain of life throughout the solar system, but we must accept population controls here on Earth? Restricting birth rates is a restriction of freedom.

Moving on, since I've already hit most of the cultural questions, the reader encounters SD.500:

We envision the following strategic goals:

  1. Space Power Systems on the Moon and/or in Orbit (see MMS short paper on this topic);
  2. Permanent industrial and scientific settlements on the Moon and artificial orbiting platforms;
  3. Artificial Small Ecosystems research settlements on the Moon and/or in Orbit;
  4. Orbital and lunar defenses against potential impacts by other celestial bodies;
  5. Orbital Medical Research Centers and hospital complex;
  6. A Shielded Astronomical Observatory compound at appropriate location (e.g. SE-L2).

Great! Who's going to pay for and build all this? Who's going to benefit from them?

EC.300, Specificity of the Greater Earth Economy...

We believe that the economic aspects of the Greater Earth development are quite different from anything before.

Different how? Leading you to what conclusions or actions? Again, are you supporting capitalism, welfare-state capitalism, socialism, communism, or fascism?

PL.200, Evolutionary social behaviour

Our beliefs are liberal, democratic, libertarian and antiauthoritarian. We act in the interest of all humanity.

It’s hard to square an "antiauthoritarian" program with some of the other statements.

PL.500 - Defense of the Scientific Research

We reject the idea that Scientific and Technological research is guilty of the environmental and ecological problems and any assumptions which would limit progress in these areas.

Previously they stated that global warming and the means to overcome it were necessarily human-created and -directed activities. Which is it?

PL.700 For an open scientific world

We defend an open concept of Scientific and Technological Research and the universal dissemination of its results.

Good.

*

The problem with any manifesto or other philosophical/political document developed by committee is that the more minds you have working the problem, the more likely it is to descend into incoherence. Clearly there are several different minds contributing to the SRI. I can find agreement with some of it, but much of it disturbs me, and some of it just isn't gelling for me. A primary advantage the space community has over other Earth-focused advocacy communities is that we can come to agreement about at least one common principle: exploring space is good for humanity. The problems come up when you start asking questions like:

  • What should our goals be?
  • Where should we go first?
  • What technologies should we use?
  • Who's going to make the decisions?
  • What should the values of a space-based civilization be?

Heck, we can't even answer these questions on Earth, much less hope to answer them for the solar system. But perhaps we should at least try. Space is a technical discipline, to be sure, but it is also at heart a philosophical one, and if the advocates cannot come up with "something completely different," then the rules pertaining to life on Earth will inevitably rule the spaceways as well. I commend the Space Renaissance Initiative folks for contributing to the conversation, but their effort also demonstrates how far we still have to go.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Potpourri VI

More reading for today.

Some interesting assorted sites about technology:

A couple of links from my buddy Down Yonder, Scott:

*

On a completely different note, a couple weeks ago I was talking to a couple ladies I know, and they were telling me about their bowling team. They are not the best bowlers in the world (I can relate). In fact, they laughingly admitted to losing to one guy in a wheelchair and another who is legally blind. I laughed, they laughed, and we moved on to the next topic.

Fast forward two weeks, and now the President of the United States is comparing his bowling skills to kids in the Special Olympics. Now, if he'd actually bowled one of those kids and lost, I'd probably laugh, as I laughed with my friends. It's called self-deprecating humor, and I use it myself. However, if I'm in a public forum, with millions of people watching, I'd probably find some other way of introducing levity. And if I'm President of these United States, I'd arrange to be doubly careful, not because I wouldn't think the remark funny, but because I'd have some awareness that others around me would not. Unfortunately, the teleprompter wasn't on, and Obama made the gaffe.

Instantly and predictably, the Sensitivity, Political Correctness, and Anti-Humor Police were out in force. They demanded he make an apology. In the face of the War on Humor, Obama duly provided his apology. Issue over. Time to lighten up and drop it. We've got global economic problems and serious security issues facing us, and people are freaking out over the president making a stupid remark on a TALK SHOW? And by the way, what's he DOING on the show, anyway? Doesn't he have something better to do?

Anybody ever wonder what happened to gravitas?

Thursday, March 19, 2009

A Conversation with Ray Kurzweil

Darlene Cavalier and Bart Leahy

The questions below were submitted by our readers. Some questions were edited or combined for content. We appreciate your participation in the ongoing discussion about the Singularity. (Note: Hyperlinks added by Bart for reference.) Our thanks to Ray Kurzweil for taking the time to respond to our queries.


General and Technical Questions – What Is the Singularity?

1. What is your “short version” definition of what the Singularity is?
–Bart


RAY: The Singularity is a future time when the pace of technological change will be so fast and transformative that you will not be able to follow it unless you merge with the intelligent technology we are creating.

2. Singularity University is clearly aimed at helping to shape the Singularity and hasten its arrival. Do exponential trends really need help and, if so, can we really expect to shape them?
–Jon

RAY: The exponential growth of information technologies will continue inexorably as it has for over a century. However, technology has always been a double-edged sword ever since we developed fire and stone tools. How we apply these technologies and whether constructive applications that overcome human suffering and extend our creativity predominate over destructive applications is not preordained. That is where we can help shape the Singularity.

3. How would we recognize the Singularity happening? Would the change be gradual, or would it be similar to the singularity around a black hole--so enormous, rapid, and widespread that we wouldn’t even realize what had happened until long after we’ve crossed the point of no return?
–Marianne

RAY: The pace of information technology is continual yet exponential. Exponential trajectories have no discontinuities but are nonetheless disruptive. You describe the changes well as “enormous, rapid, widespread,” and constituting a “point of no return.”

4. Given the slow and erratic progress in
AI over the past 40 years, what makes you so confident that machines will become intelligent (in the commonly understood sense) in the next 40?
–Corey

RAY: I disagree with your characterization of AI. It reminds me of people who go into the rain forest and ask, “where all the species that are supposed to be here” when there are 25 species of ants within fifty feet of them. The species in the rain forest are not seen because they are hidden in the ecostructure. Similarly, AI is all around us yet hidden in our modern economic infrastructure. Every time you send an email or connect a cell phone call intelligent algorithms route the information. Pick up a product, it’s been designed at least in part by intelligent computer assisted design software, inventory levels controlled by intelligent just-in-time inventory systems, assembled in robotic factories. AI software flies and lands airplanes, guides intelligent weapons system, automatically detects credit card fraud, helps you find information on the web, diagnoses electrocardiograms and blood cell images comparable to trained physicians, and much else. If all the AI programs were to stop tomorrow, our modern infrastructure would grind to a halt. That was not the case just fifteen years ago. These were all research projects then. On the research front, AI programs can now play master levels of go, drive cars with no human drivers through complex terrains, recognize songs and images, and so on. Now that we can see inside the brain with very high resolution we are building models and simulations of brain regions. That will accelerate AI in the years ahead.

Ethical and Social Questions

5. Why do you think it’s a good idea for us to create machines that are smarter or more powerful than human beings? Can we expect singularity to shape itself or will we still hold charge of our technological creations?
–Bart/Jasmin


RAY: The machines are not an alien invasion from Mars. It is part of our civilization which is already a human-machine civilization. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a higher branch, our tools have been extensions of ourselves. We are the only species that changes who we are based on tools we create.

6. Suppose that things continue in much the way they are now, with increasingly powerful and miniaturized wireless devices making information available wherever we want it. Does that count as a “Singularity?” It is easy for me to imagine, for instance, a brain implant that allows me to conduct Google searches purely by the power of thought—but that merging of biological and digital intelligence seems distinctly different from what you mean by a Singularity.
–Corey

RAY: Accessing the web from inside our brains is one good example of what we will see in about twenty years.. The machine extensions to our brains will grow exponentially both in hardware and software capability. By the late 2030s, it will be the nonbiological portion of our intelligence that predominates.

7. How do you see the economics of the future working/changing if everything is free?
–Bart

RAY: Who said everything will be free? We will continue to have open source and proprietary sources of information. When we have
nano desktop factories that can produce physical products from information files and very inexpensive input materials, we will be able to live very well on just open source information. But there will still be an edge and demand for proprietary information. Information technologies have had an 18 percent growth rate as measured in constant dollars for the past fifty years despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it for the same cost every year. This in fact has been the source of true economic growth.

8. How close are we to getting a Star Trek-like “
holodeck?”
–Jonathan

RAY: In twenty years we will be able to produce physical products from information files using nano desktop factories. This is still short of the holodeck but it will turn virtually the entire economy into an information economy.

9. How far away are we from reaching the Singularity? Is 2045 still a reasonable estimate?
–Jason

RAY: According to my models, we will multiply our biological intelligence a billion fold through its integration with nonbiological intelligence by 2045. I consider that the Singularity.

10. How do you respond to people who claim that this is just “the geek Rapture?”
–Bart

RAY: This “criticism” is based on the notion that the “rapture” came first and that we just worked backwards to justify this religious notion. But that is not where the ideas come from. They come from a scientific analysis of technology trends. Religion emerged in pre scientific times and we do need to update our philosophies based on science.

11. What is to become of people who don't want to join your Singularity and just want to remain human as they are?
–Bart


RAY: First of all, it is human to change who we are. We didn’t stay on the ground, we didn’t stay on the planet, and we have not stayed with the limitations of our biology. Human life expectancy was 23 a thousand years ago. We are the only species that changes who we are and extends our reach, both physical and mental, through our tools. So it is human to change who we are. There will always be early and late adopters, but people are not going to completely dismiss these changes. How many people today complete reject medical and health technologies? When there is a therapy based on blood cells devices that overcome a particular disease, very few if any people will reject it. People put computers in their brains today if they have Parkinson’s Disease. People do not reject this FDA approved therapy due to philosophical issues.

12. Are you pleased or disappointed with the progress made so far? What technologies are “ahead of the curve,” as you see it, which ones are behind?
–Jason

RAY: My team and I just updated the graphs that were in my 2005 book
The Singularity is Near from 2002 through 2007. The exponential curves have remained precisely on track. It is pretty remarkable when you consider that what we are measuring is the innovation of millions of people.

13. Your book takes a very optimistic view of science and human nature, but neglects the problem of human evil. Given what we've done with previous “great inventions,” don't you worry that individuals or nations could do great harm with all this—accidentally or maliciously? What safeguards would be put in place to prevent this?
–Bart/Ned

RAY: I don’t know why people say I ignore the downsides when I was the one who initiated the debate about promise versus peril. Bill Joy’s WIRED cover story “
Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us” was based on my book The Age of Spiritual Machines, as he acknowledges at the beginning of the article. My recent book, The Singularity is Near, has an extensive discussion of the downsides and what to do about them in chapter 8 (“The Deeply Intertwined Promise versus Peril of GNR”). The safeguards we need are twofold. We need ethical standards for responsible practitioners such as the Asilomar guidelines in biotechnology. And we need a rapid response system, basically a technological immune system, to deal with intentional abuse. We have such a system for software viruses. I am working with the U.S. Army on putting a rapid response system in place for bioengineered biological viruses.

14. What is/will be the relationship between ethics and The Singularity? The rapid growth of science/knowledge leads to many advancements via engineering, but how can/will ethics be applied when mankind can no longer keep pace?
–Paul

RAY: See my response to the previous question.

15. What are your foundational core values....specifically your belief about God and how that guides the limits of what you do?
–Rosalind

RAY: I believe that evolution is a spiritual process in that it leads to greater intelligence, creativity, beauty, and love, all of the attributes that God has been called without limit. I believe we have a responsibility to apply our ideas to overcome human suffering. We have made good progress on this. Just read Thomas Hobbes on what human life was like a few hundred years ago. He described it as short, brutish, disaster prone, disease and poverty filled. Human life expectancy was 37 just 200 years ago.

16. Space exploration is one technology you downplay in The Singularity is Near. Does your new venture with
Peter Diamandis and NASA—the Singularity University—change this perspective?
–Bart

RAY: Space travel will be of key importance once we saturate the matter and energy in our midst at the physical limits of computation. We will then need to spread out to the rest of the galaxy and universe. But we will not sending missions of squishy creatures, but rather missions of nanobots swarms..

17. What is the purpose of “Singularity U?”
–Bart

RAY: The purpose of Singularity University is to bring together the most creative students and professors to study exponentially growing information technologies and to apply these ideas to meeting the grand challenges of humanity.

18. What should people do about scientific literacy so that everyone can understand, at least a basic level, the rapidly advancing technology?
–Paul

RAY: Indeed, scientific literacy needs to be a core goal of our educational system. Other countries are taking that more seriously than we are. About twenty years ago, the U.S. graduated about 60,000 engineers per year and China graduated about 10,000. Now, we graduate about the same level and China graduates about 300,000 per year.

19. What should we be *doing* about all this?
–Dan

RAY: Celebrate science and engineering as the cool subjects that they are. It is only the exponentially growing information technologies that have the scale to address the major problems of humanity.

20. In 1999, you created a hedge fund called "FatKat" (
Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies) which began trading in 2006 to recognize patterns in "currency fluctuations and stock-ownership trends" and eventually beat the best human financial minds at making profitable investment decisions. Did FatKat predict the market collapse?
–Darlene


RAY: The FatKat algorithms are designed to only predict a few hours or days ahead and to do that with an accuracy that is somewhat better than chance.

21. Between the
Reading Machine and the newest pocket-sized device designed to aid blind people by reading written text aloud, you’ve demonstrated a remarkable desire to help the blind. I’m curious: what sparked your interest in helping the blind?
–Darlene

RAY: In the mid 1970s I had developed a method that could recognize print in any typestyle. It was a solution in search of a problem. I happened to sit next to a blind guy on an airplane who said that his only real handicap was the inability to read ordinary print. That sparked my desire to apply this technology to build a print-to-speech reading machine..

22. You are making a movie due for release this year called
The Singularity is Near: A True Story About the Future, part fiction, part non-fiction, in which you interview 20 big thinkers like our friend Marvin Minsky. I assume Marvin shares your vision on what Singularity is and will be. Do most “futurists” share your vision? Why or why not?
–Darlene

RAY: There is increasing awareness of my exponential view, but linear thinking is actually hard wired in the brain. So even otherwise sophisticated scientists often project current trends linearly into the future. They just have not studied technology trends. There is a profound difference between the intuitive linear perspective and the historically accurate exponential view. If I take thirty steps linearly (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, …) I get to 30. If I take thirty steps exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, …) I get to a billion. The latter sequence describes what has already happened. When I was a student at MIT we all shared one computer. The computer in your cell phone today is a million times cheaper than the one we all shared when I was a student, and is a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion fold increase in price performance since I was a student and we will do it again in the next 25 years. This applies not just to computation but to any technology where we can measure the underlying information properties such as bits moved around on the Internet, genetic sequencing, brain sequencing, and much else.

23. The “part non-fiction” subplot in your movie includes a computer that saves the world from self-replicating, tiny robots. Are you concerned that such microscopic robots will pose a threat to the world?
–Darlene

RAY: Yes, that is called the grey goo scenario, and the narrative thread in the movie illustrates this danger.. I do think we can manage that through a combination of ethical standards to build in safeguards into nanotechnology, as well as a rapid response system that detects threats and immediately deals with them, just like our biological immune system is designed to do. But this is not something we should be sanguine about. We need to be very diligent about it.

24. I understand it had been documented that one of your goals is to bring back your late father using AI. How can that happen?
–Darlene

RAY: Future AI’s will be intelligent to gather all of the information about a deceased person (his DNA from his gravesite, memories of people who knew him, archived records) and create a person (say a virtual person in a realistic virtual reality environment) very similar to that person, basically someone indistinguishable from that person to the people who knew him or her. For this reason I have kept about fifty boxes of my father’s archives, all of his music, letters, photographs, movies, etc. Would this person be the same person as my father, or a new person that just happens to be very similar? You can argue that if my father lived, he would be very different anyway. We change our particles every six months or less, but there is a continuity of pattern. I discuss this philosophical issue in chapter 7 of The Singularity is Near.

25. Lastly, you were clearly influenced by your parents’ and uncle’s careers. Are your children working in science/engineering fields?
–Darlene

RAY My son Ethan, age 29, works as a venture capitalist for Bessemer Ventures in Silicon valley in the area of high tech business. I often talk to him about my business strategies. He is not an inventor but he is fostering technology innovation. My daughter is a writer and artist and is writing a graphic novel as her senior project at Stanford. Interestingly, I majored in both computer science and creative writing at MIT.