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Showing posts with label re-opening the Office of Technology Assessment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label re-opening the Office of Technology Assessment. Show all posts

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Some Cool Stuff Over at ScienceCheerleader.com

Darlene the Science Cheerleader has some cool stuff on her site today, including:
  • A list of technology-related bills pending legislation in Congress.
  • A posting and video about participatory democracy.
  • I've posted this before, but it's of a piece with the other two: the Office of Science & Technology Policy has a web site that encourages people to offer suggestions on how to make government more collaborative, like, for instance, reinstating the Office of Technology Assessment (a standard cause of Your Humble Narrator).

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Additional Thoughts About Reviving the Office of Technology Assessment

Darlene the Science Cheerleader sent the following response to my suggested legislative language for reinstating the Office of Technology Assessment:

Bart,

Thanks for getting this going. I'm in full support of the language but I'd like to see more emphasis on opportunities for "public debate" and participation at the ground level as policies are crafted. See the Danish Board of Technology's legislative language:
http://www.itas.fzk.de/deu/TADN/TADN895/inst2.htm

Love to hear your thoughts...

What's interesting to me is that Denmark's Board of Technology language/reason for existing is quite similar to mine. Here's theirs:

According to the Act, the Danish Board of Technology has four main goals:
(1) to monitor the technological development;
(2) to carry out comprehensive Technology Assessments of the possibilities of technology and the consequences for society and the individual citicen;
(3) to initiate and perform technology assessment studies independently;
(4) to communicate the results of the work to Parliament and to the various decision-makers in society and to the Danish population to support and stimulate a public debate on technology.

Here's mine:

The Congress hereby reinstates the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) to
identify:
    • Scientific or technical issues of public interest, including their extent and primary and secondary impacts--positive and negative;
    • Known and potential sources of those issues;
    • Known and potential mitigations and solutions to problems;
    • Study methodology, figures of merit, bases of estimates, relevant equations and experiments, and results;
    • Known and potential impacts--positive and negative--of proposed solutions,
      including:
      --Technical impacts, including but not limited to maturity of the science involved, technology readiness level, and research & development needs;
      --Economic impacts, including but not limited to primary and secondary research and development costs, taxation or regluatory costs, equipment costs, and profits;
      --Legal, regulatory, and other governmental impacts, including including but not limited to new laws/regulations, reinstatement of defunct laws, stricter enforcement of existing laws, creating, restructuring, or closing government agencies, or striking down of existing legislation or regulations; and
      --Potential societal, moral, philosophical, and cultural impacts.

Upon researching and collecting the associated information of a given issue, the OTA shall then:

  • Report results, including minority opinion(s), to Congress in plain English;
  • Offer supporting testimony before Congress, if requested;
  • Document and archive reports in the Library of Congress and publicly
    accessible outlets.

Nice to know I was in the ballpark, anyway.

The tricky part, which Dar noted was missing somewhat from my mission statement, is a specific statement or mechanism for including public participation in any OTA debate. Perhaps a good place to state would be in the "whereas" statement/introduction, which is usually where the philosophical rationale for a law is stated. Say, something like this:

"Whereas the Congress recognizes that the importance of science and technology to the future of this nation;

this body will be required to vote on issues relating to the legalization, regulation, or taxation of new science and technology;

the people of the United States should have the right to have their voices heard and concerns directly included in any decisions regarding science and technology policy;

and no other body currently advises the Congress on these issues to the level necessary for informed decision making, ...

That might work. However, public participation presents challenges. These include:

  • A web site, while useful for 72 percent of American households, would still leave the 18 percent who do not have internet access--or, possibly, other electronic means of communication--without a voice. How do we reach them? Nationwide public "town hall" meetings? You won't catch everyone, but it's a start.
  • How should OTA filter public responses? Obviously profanity and spam would have to be excluded. What about comments that are not germane? For example, they ask for inputs on global warming, and someone posts a comment about nanotechnology that, while interesting, has nothing to do with global warming policy. Delete it? What about comments that are off the radar? OTA seeks public input on nanotechnology, and the respondent wants to know when we're going to release the aliens we have held prisoner in Area 51. Delete? Ignore? Include?
  • Another thing, which will drive my more science-minded friends nuts, but means a great deal to my churchgoing friends: if we're going to address moral issues, that will mean accepting comments from people who might not know a lot about the technical/scientific theory involved in X report, but who know enough to realize that it violates a fundamental tenet of their faith. This sort of thing means that religiously minded people will, indeed, have a voice in the political decisions affecting science and technology policy, which is necessary if we're going to continue to have a government that represents the interests of everyone.

    For example, one of the first things President Obama did right out of the gate (March 9, 2009) was reverse President Bush's policy on federal funding of stem cell research. Here's the exact language he used:

It is a difficult and delicate balance. Many thoughtful and decent people are conflicted about, or strongly oppose, this research. I understand their concerns, and we must respect their point of view.

But after much discussion, debate and reflection, the proper course has become clear. The majority of Americans – from across the political spectrum, and of all backgrounds and beliefs – have come to a consensus that we should pursue this research. That the potential it offers is great, and with proper guidelines and strict oversight, the perils can be avoided.

This might sound like calm, reasoned statesmanship, but when you get right down to it, the president said, "I hear what the other side is saying, but I'm overruling you." And that, as they say, was that. Where was the open debate there? This is one of the exact situations that should be addressed by OTA: to prevent arbitrary decisions from above without any form of public debate.

  • Is there to be any minimum threshold of experience, education, or interest for citizens commenting on science and technology issues? Ideally, there shouldn't be. However, let's say the town hall meetings do take place, and an OTA panel hears from some folks who have no idea what the heck they're talking about? My more elitist colleagues might say, "No way!" I say, "You might as well let in everybody." After all, if we're not going to have any minimum standards for voters--like education, property, ability to speak English, or legal ID--except for being a warm body over the age of 18, then we're going to have to keep the standards for who speaks to the OTA at the same level. That, or go back and rescind the 26th Amendment and modify a couple others as well.
  • Given the previous bullet, one might as well establish a "public notice" clause in the OTA legislation, which would say something like this:

    "As part of soliciting public comments on study topics, the OTA shall post a public notice on a publicly available government web site, which shall accept germane commentary from voting citizens on the designated up to 30 calendar days from the posting of the notice.
    "In addition, the OTA shall make available to the press public notices containing the exact language and deadline noted in the web site notice.
    "Furthermore, on topics of particular national interest, the OTA may convene public hearings at a minimum of 10 non-contiguous states to ensure that individuals without internet access are granted a forum for expressing their views."

How's that?

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Proposal: Operating Charter for the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA)

By Bart Leahy

The following is proposed reauthorization language for Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) if it is to be reinstated, funded, and made to serve the public interest. This proposal also suggests a political and operational framework for the OTA.

"Whereas the Congress recognizes that the importance of science and technology to the future of this nation;

this body will be required to vote on issues relating to the legalization, regulation, or taxation of new science and technology;

and no other body currently advises the Congress on these issues to the level necessary for informed decision making,

The Congress hereby reinstates the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) to identify:

  • Scientific or technical issues of public interest, including their extent and primary and secondary impacts--positive and negative;
  • Known and potential sources of those issues;
  • Known and potential mitigations and solutions to problems;
  • Study methodology, figures of merit, bases of estimates, relevant equations and experiments, and results;
  • Known and potential impacts--positive and negative--of proposed solutions, including:
    --
    Technical impacts, including but not limited to maturity of the science involved, technology readiness level, and research & development needs;
    --
    Economic impacts, including but not limited to primary and secondary research and development costs, taxation or regluatory costs, equipment costs, and profits;
    --
    Legal, regulatory, and other governmental impacts, including including but not limited to new laws/regulations, reinstatement of defunct laws, stricter enforcement of existing laws, creating, restructuring, or closing government agencies, or striking down of existing legislation or regulations; and
    --
    Potential societal, moral, philosophical, and cultural impacts.

Upon researching and collecting the associated information of a given issue, the OTA shall then:

  • Report results, including minority opinion(s), to Congress in plain English;
  • Offer supporting testimony before Congress, if requested;
  • Document and archive reports in the Library of Congress and publicly accessible outlets.

The OTA shall consist of an Advisory Board, which will consist of nine members of Congress, four from each party, with the Board Chair being held by the majority party. The primary Researchers will consist of individuals with extensive experience with or knowledge of the disciplines related to the topics under review. These individuals may include, but are not limited to, university professors, scientists and engineers from accredited universities and businesses related to the topic(s) under review, business owners and managers, technicians and practicioners, and private citizens who are adovcating for/against, or directly affected by, the issue under review."

Apologies for the legislatese, but I've had a little experience crafting bill language, and this is how our laws are written. Comments welcome.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Potpourri XXII

Darlene the Science Cheerleader tagged me as one of about three conservatives in the country willing to support the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). Scary, but jeez, the alternatives are much worse, as my previous post makes clear.

Ever wake up and feel different somehow? There was a story by SF writer Cordwainer Smith in which people enter "the Instrumentality," a kind of all-powerful computer/machine, and come out French. Well, now there's a chance that if you were born under just the right circumstances, you might wake up and be...Canadian. The YouTube commercial is frickin' hilarious.

If you're a Wall Street Journal subscriber, you can read the whole text of this article on Sprite. They're doing a low-key sponsorship of a singer as she tries to hit the big time. Sort of like Sprite-commercial-meets-American-Idol-meets-some-other-reality-TV-show. I've got to admit, I'm intrigued. The first "Green Eyed World" video can be found on YouTube.

And now for something completely different: a bird who really enjoys Ray Charles.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Reviving the Office of Technology Assessment

In the event this blog attracts some new readers, I'll briefly explain my angle and background here. I am a professional technical writer, which means that my day job is spent making technical content understandable to at least a high-school-educated voting public. In my free time, I am a conservative advocate for the human exploration, development, and settlement of space. I was also one of those fans of Speaker Gingrich who didn't much mourn the departure of the Office of Technology Assessment in 1995, so I've needed to be convinced of its utility and (reasonbly) bipartisan credentials.

However, below is one useful set of statistics that convinced me of the need for OTA. It is a list of the previous occupations of members of congress:

  • Doctors - 9
  • Ministers -4
  • State Governors - 14
  • State Lt. Governors - 11
  • State Legislators - 274
  • Congressional Staffers - 110
  • White House Staffers - 14
  • Law Enforcement Officers - 13
  • CIA/FBI Agents - 4
  • Scientists - 7
  • Peace Corps Volunteers - 4

That means less than 2 percent of nation's federal legislators are formally trained in the disciplines necessary to understand scientific and technological issues. That alone should scare the heck out of you.

Now there is a hazy middle ground between science and politics, which is becoming hazier as more and more of our hot political issues have scientific or technological aspects to them. There are scientists out there who are content to continue doing the science and to leave the policy-making to Washington. On the other hand, there are people like NASA's James Hansen and author-environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg, who are scientist-advocates and who have one foot in the scientific realm and one foot in the political realm. In my opinion, this is dangerous and a warping of science as originally conceived. The facts are the facts. Interpreting the meaning of facts is another step. Recommending policies in the face of said facts is yet another step. Analyzing the impact of, and recommending, said policies is yet another. And finally voting on what policy to accept is the job of Congress.

It seems to me that OTA should be filling that middle ground between understanding the policy implications of the facts and analyzing the impacts of policies related to the science/technology. Practicing field scientists and engineers provide the data. Politically minded scientists/engineers and scientifically/technically trained politicians should be evaluating the policies in the middle ground, and those individuals, combined with interested and informed citizens, should do some of the heavy lifting before anything resembling a bill reaches a subcommittee.

The questions I asked when first approached about OTA have not changed:

  • How would a revived OTA would function?
  • How big would it be?
  • Who would participate? More importantly (from my watchful point of view), who DECIDES who gets to participate?
  • What would the new OTA charter look like?
  • What steps would be taken to prevent the real or perceived irrelevance of the agency?
  • What provisions will be made to ensure that OTA remains a "lean and mean," think-tank-type of organization? In short, what will OTA supporters do to assure budget hawks that the agency deserves to be reborn when there is already a call to decrease the deficit, balance the budget, and eliminate a great deal of waste elsewhere in the federal government?
  • And finally, what will be done by the OTA to ensure that its deliberations or findings are public and made understandable to the voters? After all, it is not enough for members of congress to understand the implications of what they're doing--their constituents should have some notion, too. As a professional communicator, that is why I've advocated "plain language" requirements be added to any OTA charter.

I read a commenter on Facebook who questioned the need for "citizen input," which Darlene and I have argued is a necessary part of the equation. As the writer put it,

Science works because it doesn't consider popular opinion or what people want to be true. Its value is in eliminating individual (and group) bias in favor of objective observation.

I wouldn't argue with that definition of science. As I noted above, the facts should be the facts. The problem, as always, is what do you do about them? And that should be the job of the OTA: to offer clear explanations of what to do about particular scientific or technological developments and to explain what the costs and benefits (long-term and short-term) will be for any course of action. That is not solely the realm of science; it is the job of politics.

Some scientists might take umbrage with that notion--after all, who are these uneducated cretins to decide on something that is obviously a scientific fact?! The citizens are not there to debate the facts/findings, but to debate what's to be done about them, and to offer up explanations of what the impacts will be if certain courses of action are taken. The "answer" to a particular scientific or technical challenge might be pretty straightforward: divert the asteroid, build (or don't build) the dam, spend more money on research project A, or put tighter controls on research project X. However, in those situations where the costs of particular courses of action are massive and the potential benefit(s) might be in doubt, I would very much want debate on the matter. If we succumb to complete technocracy ("rule by the experts"), however wise or well-meaning they may be, we might very well be giving up something as precious as our lives--the freedoms that make those lives worth living.

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Potpourri XVI

I must put my DoD budget analysis on hold again. Dog ate my homework, what can I say?

I also owe Darlene the Science Cheerleader a blog on reviving the Office of Technology Assessment. In the meantime, you can check out Dar's original entry on this petition. You can also check here and here for my earlier entries on this topic. Given all the other silliness in Washington, a calm, sober group of analysts providing sage advice on science and technology issues sounds like a good idea.

Oh yeah, and I decided to spend my tax refund on a Kindle 2 with case. I'm expecting to take delivery on Monday. I'll write a product review once I've had a chance to work with the toy a bit.

This looks like something to write while drinking a glass or two of wine: a winery is holding a contest to write the blurb on the back of their latest label. The catch? The name of the wine is Rocket Science.

OpenNASA has a new posting on reinventing NASA.

7,000 uranium centrifuges in Iran, and so Obama wants to convene nuclear arms talks with them.

A Rasmussen Poll states that only 53% of Americans think capitalism is better than socialism.

An NSS blog on a Catch-22 in space development.

Fox News reports on NASA cost overruns.

The Pentagon played an economic war game recently--and the results were not promising.

President Obama's new science advisor talks about many issues with Science, including space and NASA.

This is an interesting site: you can track this guy's GPS position as he climbs Mt. Everest.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Barack Obama Responds to the Science Debate Questions

From Darlene the Science Cheerleader:

http://www.sciencedebate2008.com/www/index.php?id=40

McCain's responses are supposedly "in work." Being who I am, I cannot resist commenting on Obama's responses. Here it goes...

*

My administration will increase funding for basic research in physical and life sciences, mathematics, and engineering at a rate that would double basic research budgets over the next decade. We will increase research grants for early-career researchers to keep young scientists entering these fields. We will increase support for high-risk, high-payoff research portfolios at our science agencies. And we will invest in the breakthrough research we need to meet our energy challenges and to transform our defense programs.
The Bush Administration is already doing this.

A vigorous research and development program depends on encouraging talented people to enter science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and giving them the support they need to reach their potential. My administration will work to guarantee to students access to strong science curriculum at all grade levels so they graduate knowing how science works – using hands-on, IT-enhanced education. As president, I will launch a Service Scholarship program that pays undergraduate or graduate teaching education costs for those who commit to teaching in a high-need school, and I will prioritize math and science teachers. Additionally, my proposal to create Teacher Residency Academies will also add 30,000 new teachers to high-need schools – training thousands of science and math teachers. I will also expand access to higher education, work to draw more of these students into science and engineering, and increase National Science Foundation (NSF) graduate fellowships. My proposals for providing broadband Internet connections for all Americans across the country will help ensure that more students are able to bolster their STEM achievement.
“I will…I will…I will…” We have a Congress too.

Progress in science and technology must be backed with programs ensuring that U.S. businesses have strong incentives to convert advances quickly into new business opportunities and jobs. To do this, my administration will make the R&D tax credit permanent.
Good.

Specifically, I will implement a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. I will start reducing emissions immediately by establishing strong annual reduction targets with an intermediate goal of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. A cap- and-trade program draws on the power of the marketplace to reduce emissions in a cost- effective and flexible way. I will require all pollution credits to be auctioned.
This will slow our economy while benefiting China and India, which are our biggest competitors and will NOT sign onto this system.

First, I have proposed programs that, taken together, will increase federal investment in the clean energy research, development, and deployment to $150 billion over ten years. This research will cover:
• Basic research to develop alternative fuels and chemicals;
Does this include Helium-3 or space solar power alternatives?

• A new generation of nuclear electric technologies that address cost, safety, waste disposal, and proliferation risks.
Nothing about more drilling, which is the biggest near-term concern (0-15 years out), which is NEEDED to reduce energy prices now and fill in the gap until new nuke plants or other alternatives come available.

Second, it is essential that we create a strong, predictable market for energy innovations with concrete goals that speed introduction of innovative products and provide a strong incentive for private R&D investment in energy technologies. These concrete goals include:
A strong, predictable market with concrete goals requires government planning and oversight, which is not capitalism, but socialism.

I will also encourage communities around the nation to design and build sustainable communities that cut energy use with walkable community designs and expanded investment in mass transit.
A “walkable” community, while great in theory, in reality will have to restrict freedom of movement via automobile either through edict or economic disincentives. New mass transit systems will mean new taxes. Good luck selling either one in a soft economy.

All American citizens need high quality STEM education that inspires them to know more about the world around them, engages them in exploring challenging questions, and involves them in high quality intellectual work. STEM education is no longer only for those pursuing STEM careers; it should enable all citizens to solve problems, collaborate, weigh evidence, and communicate ideas. I will work to ensure that all Americans, including those in traditionally underrepresented groups, have the knowledge and skills they need to engage in society, innovate in our world, and compete in the global economy.
Encouraging skill-based credentials via testing (e.g. CPA-type exams) instead of requiring college degrees would open more jobs to more people who otherwise couldn’t afford or wouldn’t want to attend a four-year university. Individuals taking said comprehensive tests would only have to PASS them—where they get the education is not the concern; they could be high school graduates, trade school students, or home-schooled. Upon passing the exam, the individuals taking them would be able to enter the workforce, ideally without incurring crushing debts.

I will make sure that through the new $4,000 American Opportunity Tax Credit, they will have access to affordable higher education that will provide them with the science fluency they need to be leaders in STEM fields and across broad sectors of our society.
This tax credit could also go toward paying for application/test fees, which would be a great deal less expensive than $4,000 (unless the CPA exam really IS that high…).

When Sputnik was launched in 1957, President Eisenhower used the event as a call to arms for Americans to help secure our country and to increase the number of students studying math and science via the National Defense Education Act. That educational base not only improved our national security and space programs but also led to our economic growth and innovation over the second half of the century. Our nation is again hearing a threatening “ping” in the distance, this time not from a single satellite in space but instead from threats that range from asymmetric conflicts to cyber attacks, biological terror and nuclear proliferation. I will lead the nation to be prepared to meet this 21st- century challenge by investing again in math and science education, which is vital to protecting our national security and our competitiveness.
“I will lead the nation…”

This year, I was encouraged to see the Department of Defense (DoD) requested a sharp increase in the basic research budget for breakthrough technologies. More is needed. My administration will put basic defense research on a path to double and will assure strong funding for investments in DoD’s applied research programs.
Where’s the money for this going to come from?

Finally, we will act to reverse the erosion of the U.S. manufacturing base - which could jeopardize our technical superiority. We need to continue to develop the finest defense systems in the world. But, we are losing domestic production capability for critical defense components and systems. I will implement the recommendations of the Defense Science Board on defense manufacturing, strengthen efforts at DoD’s Manufacturing Technology program, and invest in innovative manufacturing sciences and processes to cut manufacturing costs and increase efficiency.
Some of this relates to the ITAR problem.

Overseas, I will launch a Shared Security Partnership that invests $5 billion over 3 years to forge an international intelligence and law enforcement infrastructure to take down terrorist networks.
Where’s this money going to come from? What specifically will be done with it?

And to ensure our country is prepared should such an event occur, we must provide our public health system across the country with the surge capacity to confront a crisis and improve our ability to cope with infectious diseases. I will invest in new vaccines and technology to detect attacks and to trace them to their origin, so that we can react in a timely fashion. I have pledged to invest $10 billion per year over the next 5 years in electronic health information systems to not only improve routine health care, but also ensure that these systems will give health officials the crucial information they need to deploy resources and save lives in an emergency. I will help hospitals form collaborative networks to deal with sudden surges in patients and will ensure that the U.S. has adequate supplies of medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic tests and can get these vital products into the hands of those who need them.
I will…I will…I have…I will…

Disease treatment and identification is likewise being transformed by modern genetics. Recombinant DNA (rDNA) technology has produced a number of products such as human growth hormone or insulin or other complicated proteins that are known to be involved in bone metabolism, immune response, and tissue repair. The promise of rDNA is its ability to sidestep potentially harmful intermediaries that could have a pathogenic effect. Some forms of gene therapy-replacing faulty genes with functional copies-in comparison have encountered safety issues that arise from how the functional gene is delivered. As a result, the NIH established the Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee, which now provides advice and guidance on human gene therapy as well as other ethical concerns or potential abuse of rDNA technology. Until we are equipped to ascertain the safety of such methods, I will continue to support the activities and recommendations of the Recombinant DNA Advisory Committee.
No objection to anything here, but I’ll be curious to see how Obama (or McCain) deals with the EU’s objection to using genetically modified food products.

For these reasons, I strongly support expanding research on stem cells. I believe that the restrictions that President Bush has placed on funding of human embryonic stem cell research have handcuffed our scientists and hindered our ability to compete with other nations. As president, I will lift the current administration’s ban on federal funding of research on embryonic stem cell lines created after August 9, 2001 through executive order, and I will ensure that all research on stem cells is conducted ethically and with rigorous oversight.
Opponents of the research would say that harvesting stem cells from aborted fetuses is, by its very nature, unethical and immoral.

I recognize that some people object to government support of research that requires cells to be harvested from human embryos. However, hundreds of thousands of embryos stored in the U.S. in in-vitro fertilization clinics will not be used for reproductive purposes, and will eventually be destroyed. I believe that it is ethical to use these extra embryos for research that could save lives when they are freely donated for that express purpose.
Well, at least he explained his rationale.

I am also aware that there have been suggestions that human stem cells of various types, derived from sources other than embryos, make the use of embryonic stem cells unnecessary. I don’t agree. While adult stem cells, such as those harvested from blood or bone marrow, are already used for treatment of some diseases, they do not have the versatility of embryonic stem cells and cannot replace them. Recent discoveries indicate that adult skin cells can be reprogrammed to behave like stem cells; these are exciting findings that might in the future lead to an alternate source of highly versatile stem cells. However, embryonic stem cells remain the “gold standard,” and studies of all types of stem cells should continue in parallel for the foreseeable future.
Note that adult stem cells have already been used for treatment of diseases, while embryonic stem cells have not; and yet the embryonic cells are considered the “gold standard.” I must wonder why.

The oceans are a global resource and a global responsibility for which the U.S. can and should take a more active role. I will work actively to ensure that the U.S. ratifies the Law of the Sea Convention – an agreement supported by more than 150 countries that will protect our economic and security interests while providing an important international collaboration to protect the oceans and its resources. My administration will also strengthen regional and bilateral research and oceans preservation efforts with other Gulf Coast nations.

The NSS has fought against the Law of the Sea Treaty for the last year (white paper penned by yours truly here) because it sets bad precedents for public property rights in space. That is, if we allow the United Nations to control who has control or access to the resources of open seas, what's to say they won't try to do the same if someone tries to mine asteroids or the Moon? Is he willing to take executive action that would state specifically that the Law of the Sea Treaty would NOT apply to space?

Solutions to this critical problem will require close collaboration between federal, state, and local governments and the people and businesses affected. First, prices and policies must be set in a ways that give everyone a clear incentive to use water efficiently and avoid waste.
This is flat-out interference by the federal government into what are essentially local issues.

Regulations affecting water use in appliances and incentives to shift from irrigated lawns to "water smart" landscapes are examples. Second, information, training, and, in some cases, economic assistance should be provided to farms and businesses that will need to shift to more efficient water practices. Many communities are offering kits to help businesses and homeowners audit their water use and find ways to reduce use. These should be evaluated, with the most successful programs expanded to other states and regions. I will establish a national plan to help high-growth regions with the challenges of managing their water supplies.
See my previous comment.

11. Space. The study of Earth from space can yield important information about climate change; focus on the cosmos can advance our understanding of the universe; and manned space travel can help us inspire new generations of youth to go into science. Can we afford all of them? How would you prioritize space in your administration?

As president, I will establish a robust and balanced civilian space program. Under my administration, NASA not only will inspire the world with both human and robotic space exploration, but also will again lead in confronting the challenges we face here on Earth, including global climate change, energy independence, and aeronautics research. In achieving this vision, I will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA’s reach. I believe that a revitalized NASA can help America maintain its innovation edge and contribute to American economic growth. There is currently no organizational authority in the federal government with a sufficiently broad mandate to oversee a comprehensive and integrated strategy and policy dealing with all aspects of the government’s space-related programs, including those being managed by NASA, the Department of Defense, the National Reconnaissance Office, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Transportation, and other federal agencies. This wasn’t always the case. Between 1958 and 1973, the National Aeronautics and Space Council oversaw the entire space arena for four presidents; the Council was briefly revived from 1989 to 1992. I will re-establish this Council reporting to the president. It will oversee and coordinate civilian, military, commercial, and national security space activities. It will solicit public participation, engage the international community, and work toward a 21st century vision of space that constantly pushes the envelope on new technologies as it pursues a balanced national portfolio that expands our reach into the heavens and improves life here on Earth.
My comments on these positions have been stated elsewhere.

12. Scientific Integrity. Many government scientists report political interference in their job. Is it acceptable for elected officials to hold back or alter scientific reports if they conflict with their own views, and how will you balance scientific information with politics and personal beliefs in your decision-making?
Click here to review my previous objections to this and the previous question.

• Establish the nation’s first Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to ensure that our government and all its agencies have the right infrastructure, policies and services for the 21st century. The CTO will lead an interagency effort on best-in-class technologies, sharing of best practices, and safeguarding of our networks;
Oh, goody. Another new cabinet position. And with that position will come a staff (you're nobody in Washington unless you have a staff), and then an agency under the staff.

• Strengthen the role of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) by appointing experts who are charged to provide independent advice on critical issues of science and technology. The PCAST will once again be advisory to the president; and
Is this the same as the Office of Technology Assessment? What will it do? How much authority will "strengthening" provide PCAST?

Federally supported basic research, aimed at understanding many features of nature— from the size of the universe to subatomic particles, from the chemical reactions that support a living cell to interactions that sustain ecosystems—has been an essential feature of American life for over fifty years. While the outcomes of specific projects are never predictable, basic research has been a reliable source of new knowledge that has fueled important developments in fields ranging from telecommunications to medicine, yielding remarkable rates of economic return and ensuring American leadership in industry, military power, and higher education. I believe that continued investment in fundamental research is essential for ensuring healthier lives, better sources of energy, superior military capacity, and high-wage jobs for our nation’s future.
Yea, verily.

Sustained and predictable increases in research funding will allow the United States to accomplish a great deal. First, we can expand the frontiers of human knowledge. Second, we can provide greater support for high-risk, high-return research and for young scientists at the beginning of their careers. Third, we can harness science and technology to address the “grand challenges” of the 21st century: energy, health, food and water, national security, information technology, and manufacturing capacity.
Again, very true. No argument. However, where's the money going to come from?

The effectiveness of medical care can be improved, and its costs can be reduced, by greater emphasis on best practices, electronic medical records, hospital safety, preventive strategies, and improved public health surveillance.
What about tort reform, which reduces patient fraud and would increase incentives for people to become doctors?

Anyhow, these responses, like the recent seven-page Obama statement on space, are a mixed bag of reasonable and unreasonable, simplicity and unnecessary complexity. It has some good places, but it is not consistent, or clearly coherent. Government does do better when investing in/spending on basic research that is unlikely to show immediate, obvious return on investment. It does less well when attempting to pick winners and losers. Taxes, regulations, and incentives can do some things, but--as with prizes in the space business--they cannot do everything. However, the Obama campaign isn't likely to listen to me or put me on the payroll. Just as well.

We'll see what McCain has to say.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Commentary on the Science Debate Questions

"I've never met a man with so many opinions." --Jedediah Leland, Citizen Kane

"Could you stop being Bart for a minute?" --a friend, several years ago (needless to say, the answer was "no")

I finally got around to reading all of the questions on the Science Debate site, and I found that I could not resist offering commentary on some of the phrasing. This is not to say that I disagree with everything or the need for the debate; I do not. However, some of the questions are phrased in such a way that people on the conservative fence would know going into it that the fix was in. For example...

2. Climate Change. The Earth's climate is changing...

The smarty-butt in my wants to say, "Yeah, the climate is changing all the time--it's called weather." However, on a more rational note, simply repeating that the climate is changing (global warming/global cooling) does not make it so. This is still an assumption. Some among us would like more hard data. Climate models make a lot of assumptions, and still cannot account for everything. Weather forecasts are only good on a local level--at best--five to seven days out. Why should I/we believe that these climate models are serious. We alternate between disappearing ice and the worst cold winter in 30 years. That's weather, not climate. The real concerns are:

  1. Some (not all) scientists are concerned about the future state of the planet's climate.
  2. More reliable data is needed at all levels of the climate to determine the future state.
  3. Climate models need to be made reliable and accurate enough to explain the past, present, and future.
  4. Once the true state of things is known, we can start discussing mitigation.
  5. The recommended solutions in the question (cap-and-trade emissions, carbon taxes, increased fuel efficiency standards) all have economic costs that are very difficult to sell to the American public when people are more concerned about paying for transportation than the effects of said transportation.

In short, this question has an obvious slant and ignores an alternative view of the situation.

Energy...What policies would you support to meet demand for energy while ensuring an economcially and environmentally sustainable future?

The giveaway on the slant of this question is the magic word "sustainable." People seem to think they know what they mean by this, but do they really? Usually, the unspoken assumption when using these words (on the left) is that if one wishes to be sustainable in the long run, one must reduce expediture or consumption over the long run. That means slowing down the economy and setting our sights lower as far as progress or comfort levels are concerned. That is, of course, my interpretation. The people writing these questions would do well to explain what they mean by sustainable.

4. Education...What role do you think the federal government should play in preparing K-12 students for the science and technology driven 21st Century?

The question assumes that the federal government must take a role. A serious conservative might respond, "I think the best thing the federal government could do is to reduce its role in education, get out of the way, and allow more educational experimentation at the state and local level." I've said this before, but it bears repeating: If we have only one educational system in this country--the government schools--and that system is failing, then ALL of our students are hosed. If there are multiple alternatives, funded by local governments or federal/state vouchers, then experimentation would occur at the local level, successful experiments could be repeated, a smaller percentage of students would be hosed by a bad system, and failing systems would have more incentive to compete and improve their curriculum. There is also the fact that if the education system is controlled from Washington instead of in thousands of local constituencies, it becomes much easier for lobbyists to focus on one place for their efforts and exert influence. Federalism was supposed to prevent the concentration of power in one place.

Stem cells.

I must confess that I don't know nearly enough about this topic. However, what I have read gives me some concern. A "stem cell" is an adaptable cell that can easily change from one cell type to another. These cells are commonly found in embryos, where the cells have yet to differentiate into individual body parts. The practical application would be that if we could obtain more living embryonic stem cells from cast-off (aborted) embryos, those cells could be used to replace damaged cells in adults. Liberals argue that the cells (embryos) weren't going to be used anyway because they were aborted. Conservatives don't like the idea of abortion, period, and really don't like the notion of "harvesting" embryos via abortion in order to suit the convenience/health of adults. There are also concerns that this practice could lead to cloning. However, there have, as yet, been no cures using these cells for anything useful. There are also other ways to obtain stem cells, including adult stem cells, which would not require abortions to obtain.

The argument for embryonic stem cell research is similar to spending money on space research: "You never know what we'll find! We could find the cure for cancer!" Well, space medicine has not resulted in a cure for cancer. However, space-based medicine and medical technologies do have a proven track record, unlike the stem cell business. To which proponents of stem cells would probably say, "Then you need to give us a chance." What they seem to forget is that a lot of space medicine came about because we were trying to monitor astronauts in space and keep them alive first. Then we came up with applications here on Earth. Right now, embryonic stem cell research strikes me as unnecessarily ghoulish. That doesn't mean, however, that I don't think the question should be included in the debate. I would just like to hope that the candidates could engage in serious discussions about the role of morality in science. Again, the word is hope, not expect.

9. Ocean Health. Scientists estimate that some 75 percent of the world's fisheries are in serious decline...

I have no problem with this question or assertion, per se, I'd just like to know a little more about WHO is making the assertion, how many, and under what circumstances/pretenses?

11. Space...Can we afford all of them?

Oh, for gosh sakes...Most of the questions on the site presume or ask directly for government funding. Yet suddenly, when it comes to space (still less than 1 percent of the total), they ask if we can afford it? There is also a hidden assumption in the next question:

How would you prioritize space in your administration?

What's the unspoken assumption here? That the budget for space is not going to increase. We need new energy sources. We need to expand our potential sources of energy. We need to continue economic growth and technological development. All of the above would or should require increased space spending. This question assumes a static NASA budget and a reallocation of the pie. We can do better than that.

12. Scientific Integrity. Many government scientists report political interference in their job.

NASA has already taken steps to investigate and address any potential censorship. On the whole, this charge was found to be false. However, certain scientists (and I'm thinking here particularly of the very public Dr. James Hansen) need to understand the difference between reporting scientific data/potential conclcusions and advocating positions on government time. I did a study of scientific language in grad school, and the predominant tone of technical writing in scientific reports for at least the last century has been one of caution and qualified conclusion: "If X and Y are true, then Z might be possible under the following conditions..." The vehement stridency of Dr. Hansen and some of his allies has not used the language of science, but advocacy. However, they use their positions as scientists to provide ethos to their conclusions.

Now this is not to say that I completely disagree with the notion that global warming (or, God forbid, global freezing) might be occurring. I just want to read/see the data. I want rationality, calm, hard analysis based on observation. Then I can start thinking about mitigation. That's a completely different set of analyses--"What should we do next?"--and those analyses are political, economic, and technical, not scientific in the purest sense. Dr. Hansen, et al., want to leap directly from tentative conclusion to policy action without any intervening of debate in between. "THIS IS A CRISIS! WE CAN'T AFFORD TO WAIT! WE'RE EXPERTS AND YOU NEED TO LISTEN TO AND OBEY US NOW!!!!" This is exactly the sort of debating behavior that drives me up the wall, partly because I don't like to be yelled at, partly because I don't like to be pushed around, and partly because it's not proper argumentation.

Is it acceptable for elected officials to hold back or alter scientific reports if they conflict with their own views? Obviously not. Data is what it is. It is up to scientists to interpret what they see. And the data on climate is still mixed and selective.

The real danger here is the extreme politicization of science. It is not appropriate for scientists to make policy recommendations unless that's their job. It is not good science to say, "We have observed decreased glacier activities in X, Y, and Z areas; therefore, the entire world is experiencing global warming; therefore we should tax the West on their carbon emissions to make the world economy fair." Even people not trained in argumentation should see the holes in that set of conclusions, and yet that's what Hansen is, in essence, trying to do while on the job as a paid civil servant. His behavior is doubly inappropriate. He is doing advocacy, which should be done off the clock. It's not just a matter of his tone; his argumentation methods are flawed. I would remove this question from the debate.

14. Health...How do you see science, research, and technology contributing to improved health and quality of life?

Many advancements in medicine have come from space, making question 11 even more annoying and perplexing to me.

Again, I'm not doubting the need for this debate. It would be darned interesting to watch, if we had a couple of candidates who were up to the challenge. However, I don't think either of these guys is bright enough to carry on a serious conversation about science. They weren't hired for that, quite frankly. They were hired/elected to debate matters of policy (all the more reason to reinstate the Office of Technology Assessment, right?). If we could get a little of the bias out of some of those questions, I'd be 100% behind the effort.

We should have open debates about scientific matters. The science and data collection are going on right now, and serious, scientifically trained professionals are doing that work. However, we should not have those same scientists necessarily dictating policy (technocracy = rule by the experts or technocrats) unless they have been elected to do so. We do need more elected representatives who are educated in the sciences or engineering and fewer lawyers, in my opinion, but that's an argument for another day. And in the meantime, the non-scientists and non-engineers in the Congress and White House (and yes, even in the Supreme Court) should have access to better information about scientific issues and their implications for public policy.

I'll be interested to see if this debate takes place. It couldn't hurt, but it should be done right. I'll give some more thought to what "done right" means later.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

The Office of Technology Assessment Reconsidered

Several weeks ago, I responded to Darlene the Science Cheerleader's call to reinstate the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). Today I got a comment from Nate Hafer at the Federation of American Scientists, which maintains the OTA's report archive, asking to again highlight the site. I have not problem with that. Mr. Hafer also called my attention to the video by Congressman Rush Holt (D-NJ) in favor of reinstating this office.

I had no objection to any of Congressman Holt's comments; they seemed perfectly reasonable. But if concerned citizens like me are going to call for OTA's reinstatement, I think it is time for Mr. Hafer, Darlene, et al., to lay their cards on the table. Before OTA is reborn I would want to know the following:

  • How, exactly, would a revived OTA would function?
  • How big would it be?
  • Who would participate?
  • More importantly (from my semi-mistrustful point of view) who DECIDES who gets to participate?
  • What would the new OTA charter look like?
  • What steps would be taken to prevent the real or perceived irrelevance of the agency?
  • What provisions will be made to ensure that OTA remains a "lean and mean," think tank type of organization?
  • In short, what will OTA supporters do to assure budget hawks that the agency deserves to be reborn when there is already a call to decrease the deficit, balance the budget, and eliminate a great deal of waste elsewhere in the federal government?

I spend my days fighting for one of the most neglected agencies in the government, NASA. I could see some wiseacre saying, "Well, we can take OTA's funding out of NASA's research and development budget," or somesuch thing. Not impossible, at any rate.

*

On a similar and more positive note, I saw recently that the National Science Foundation has put in a budget of $6.85 billion for 2009, a 14 percent increase--and might get it. Jeez, a 14 percent increase in NASA's budget (nearly $3 billion!), spread appropriately among the five directorates, would be enough to make up for damages from Katrina, plug some funding holes in Constellation, AND provide healthy increases for science and aeronautics! Of course, I don't get to decide how NASA's budget is divvied up, more's the pity. Still, the NSF budget increase is a sign that the government GETS IT when it comes to the need for increased science funding. Progress, of a sort, which Bush most likely won't get credit for in certain circles, but so it goes.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Petition Signing: Re-Opening the Office of Technology Assessment

This one was thrown over the transom by Darlene, the Science Cheerleader: it's a petition to ask Congress to reinstate the Office of Technology Assessment, a citizens' advisory group which, unlike the folks who run the National Science Foundation, are not necessarily scientists or experts in a particular scientific field. What the OTA did, from 1972 to 1995, is throw a group of concerned citizens into a room, have them discuss particular issues of science or technology policy, and then write up reports based on their discussion--particularly focusing on points of commonality.

Some reports that might be of interest to readers of this blog (or more to the point, the writer of this blog) include:

In any case, there is PLENTY of food for thought here, and as the reader can see, OTA addressees a number of hot issues that affect the voting public. I'd be curious to know more about how OTA actually functioned. The Wikipedia article states that its board members were 12 members of Congress, 6 from each parth. The article also provided this little tidbit, which offers some insight into why it was closed down by Newt Gingrich's 104th Congress:

Criticism of the agency was fueled by Fat City, a 1980 book by Donald Lambro that was regarded favorably by the Reagan administration; it called OTA an "unnecessary agency" that duplicated government work done elsewhere. OTA was abolished in "Contract with America" period of Newt Gingrich's Republican ascendancy in Congress.

At the time that 104th Congress withdrew funding for OTA, it had a full-time staff of 143 people and an annual budget of $21.9 million.

Mind you, there could be unforeseen consequences to this office, depending on its scope of authority. The Congressional Research Service report linked to in the Wikipedia article is worth reading.

Some questions for Darlene:

The CRS report cites criticism of the OTA's research as suffering from "liberal bias," though I'm forced to wonder how this was allowed/possible if both parties had equal membership.

I am also curious about why the same research could not be done by the Congressional Research Service itself--or another office like NSF or GAO.

The OTA Board consists of members of Congress--most of them rich lawyers and not experts in science or technology; also, the reports being generated came from field research and interviews with experts in the field. Where, exactly, would the citizens' voices come in?

The Citizens' Advisory Council for Space, which I mentioned earlier, consisted of both military and civilian types; scientists and engineers; and, for thought consolidation and report writing, science fiction writers (Heinlein, Clarke, Pournelle, and Niven, to name four--the story can be found in "How to Save Civilization (and Make a Little Money)" in Larry Niven's N-Space anthology). A lot of these folks were not policy makers, to be certain, but they were all educated in the fields at hand. Indeed, the SF writers could probably qualify as experts in their field. If a similar structure were proposed for a revived OTA, then presumably it would resemble the CACS. The contributors would be citizens, true, but citizens of a particular education level, income level, or class. Who in a revived OTA would be responsible for translating any reports or results to an increasingly undereducated public?

Understand: I have no particular interest in having the uninformed offer opinions on matters they know nothing about--I'm just curious what means would be available to make the OTA's results accessible to the broader, interested public. One of the points raised by Charles Murray's The Bell Curve is that we run the risk of having our high-tech society ruled increasingly by people who understand said technology. Meanwhile, the portion of the population that remains ignorant of such things increasingly finds itself subject to decisions they don't understand, and that might, in fact, be contrary to their interests. This is one of the dangers of technocracy--rule by the experts. All I'm saying is that any future OTA should be an advisory, not a governing body, and that any reports the Office releases should be released in some sort of plain-language and yes, if possible, "dumbed down" version accessible to high-school-educated lay people. Citizens should know what their lawmakers--and the experts who advise them--are up to, yes?

That's all for now. I'll be signing the petition, but with my reservations noted above.