Leadership and Laziness

I got this one from Jerry Pournelle. It's worth reading as an analysis of how leaders are selected (or rejected) in the armed forces. There are lessons for the civilian world as well.

In classic military science, officers are divided into Brilliant vs. Stupid, and Lazy vs. Active. Now understand, these are relative terms: we are assuming that this is not Lake Wobegon, and even the Stupid can be pretty smart compared to the general population; stupid is probably the wrong word although it is the one generally used in these discussions. You will see what I mean in a moment.
This produces four classes of officers. What do you do with them?

First, the commanders, from company to regiment to division to army to army group: which class do you want as commanders? The answer is that you want them Brilliant and Lazy. Then for their Chief of Staff you want the Brilliant and Active. The reasoning is simple enough. The Active tend never to leave well enough alone. They drive the troops mad with new schemes for improvement. Your units go to hell.

However, you need the Brilliant and Active in the picture, just not as commanders. Someone has to recognize problems and look for solutions and agitate for improvements. You want the man at the top to understand this, and select among the various recommendations those which are needed – and which are affordable. But you want the agitation for improvement, else things atrophy.
So far so good. Now what do you do with the Stupid and Lazy? Why, that’s the bulk of your officer corps. They follow orders, and if they come up with awful ideas they aren’t so active as to try to implement them. As to the Stupid and Active, you encourage them to get out and go away. You have no place for them.

Potpourri CXXX

I have a LOT of junk in the blog file, so let's just see how far I get before I grow tired of the exercise. Ya just never know what mood is going to strike me sometimes.

From Kate Down Under:

• A roundtable site on the Battle of Midway, one of the major turning points of World War II.

From Jerry Pournelle:

• A posting on surviving the future/survivalism (which isn't exactly the same thing).
• Some comments on the state of education in the U.S....and it's not pretty.
• Three essays on what should be done about space/ NASA: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/gettospace.html, http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail242.html#prizes, and http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail242.html#prizes.
• Some thoughts on reforming Wall Street and fund rating agencies.

From D2:

• Seven species of robot
• A truly fantastic TED.com lecture on why we should go to Mars.

It's been awhile, but these are still (mostly) worth reading...some of my thoughts on using targeted marketing to appeal to specific audiences in space advocacy.

• http://www.thespacereview.com/article/795/1
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/03/more-on-gen-y-and-space-friend-sent-me.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/07/apollo-11-39-ares-i-x-etc.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/07/should-disney-get-retired-space-shuttle.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/03/selling-space-to-science-fiction-fans.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/03/marketing-space-to-baby-boomers-ive-put.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/03/marketing-space-to-gen-x-okay-enough.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2008/02/useful-travel-links-and-marketing-to.html
• http://bartacus.blogspot.com/2007/10/targeted-marketing-vs.html).

A cautionary tale for any Gen Y tech genius looking to get ahead in the world: Apple traditionally has kept a tight hold on keeping new products from being seen by the public until they were good and ready. That is, until this kid brought a new "4G" iPhone with him to a bar, got ripped, and left it behind, allowing Gizmodo.com to pick it up and reveal some of its secrets to an interested world. Wonder where this kid's next job is going to be and whether he'll be asking "You want fries with that?"

National Geographic has some cool pictures of the lightning generated by the Iceland volcano. Speaking of that volcano, it's affecting domestic commercial aviation revenues, not just transatlantic.

Note to scientists interested in hunting for meteorite fragments: try to do it expeditiously during planting season.

Interesting letter to the editor in the Huntsville Times on being yourself.

A report in the Houston Chronicle says that depression is more common in springtime than winter. Doesn't sound right to me, but I've always been cold-intolerant/-depressed.

Some mild Mars humor from Fox News viewers.

Speeding isn't just monitored by cameras on the ground anymore...

Did you know vacationing was a basic human right? Depends on whom you ask.

An opinion poll by the Everett Group on space exploration.

Markings on Pluto look like molasses?

More details revealed on the X-37, which launched last week.

From the Chronicle of Higher Education: a good article on bad writing. Trust me, folks: there is NO need for academic writing to be bad or dull.

Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has an editorial on the failings of Constellation, getting a few things wrong and missing a few critical points, alas. Like the Shuttle, I have a feeling Constellation won't be missed until it's gone.

Some more good pictures of Ares I-X.

Speaking of Ares I-X, I have two articles in the latest edition of Ad Astra: a summary of Ares I-X and a review of Les Johnson's latest book.

I keep getting asked what I think of the Obama administration's NASA policy. Best I can do is refer you to the first paragraph of the National Space Society's original response to the 2011 budget. After all, I wrote that one. :-)

Speaking of Obama's space policy the New York Daily News has an editorial by Robert Zubrin on Obama's "failure to launch." There's also this.

The subtitle on this article made me laugh long and loudly: "Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in an interview Sunday, when asked about the Tea Party protests, that the Obama administration is paying more attention to the deficit than the Bush administration did." BWAH ha ha ha ha ha! Want to visualize what "budget cuts" mean to the current administration? Check this out, and this.

A climate scientist in Australia was quick to "announce" that the eruption of the Iceland volcano would have no effect on temperatures in Europe. And if temperatures DO drop, as they did after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo? Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

A really excellent and uplifting (if a tad utopian) talk by my buddy Loretta Whitesides on the future of space and what we can do with it.

Did you know there was a "man-cession" on?

Amazing what some folks will pay good money for...for instance, movie props from the latest Iron Man movie.

Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin will speak at the Mars Society Convention this coming August. Speaking of Griffin, he was one of the VIP guests at Yuri's Night Huntsville this year.

Sometimes it's all about modernizing the Benjamins...

I just liked these images...some of the world's most unusual buildings.

Why are some guys single? This article suggests a few answers...I've pled guilty to most or all of these at one time or another.

Twenty years of Hubble Space Telescope photos. Saaaaa-lute!

I still want to include this artist's work as part of ISDC 2011. Anyone have any idea how one goes about arranging that?

From one of my random morning internet surfing adventures:

• A Guide to the World’s Healthiest Booze
• Best Star Wars memorabilia ever (some of these are arguable)

Speaking of booze, I got this link from Tina, indicating that stronger wine might be available for sale in Alabama soon. I don't want stronger wine here, I just want Wine.com to be able to ship good stuff here.

Rock your Christmas hard:

• With Twisted Sister
• And Billy Idol (what's with that turtleneck, dude?)

From my old stomping grounds of Illinois...Blago (former Governor Rod Blagioevich) wants to subpoena President Obama in a corruption trial. This could prove interesting.

This is kinda cool: a 360-degree view of Atlantis on the launch pad at Complex 39A.

The makers of Marmite are taking the British National Party to court for using their product in an ad without their permission.

Because traveling through Dulles International Airport doesn't bite enough...

From Nick Skytland, an interesting article on how management is done at Pixar Studios.

From Joanne Manaster:

• The world's tiniest world map.
• Renowned physicist Stephen Hawking advises against attracting E.T.'s attention.

Random: William Shatner and some Chinese guy I've never heard of doing a cover of "Total Eclipse of the Heart." No, really.

This is pretty cool: a father developed an app to help his autistic son communicate.

Wow! Cleared 'em all out. Might as well reward myself with (almost) 8 hours of sleep. Stranger things have happened.

Potpourri CXXII

Apologies for the long delay in posting. My apartment got flooded after my water heater had a gusher, saturating the carpet and resulting in a four-day exile to the Hotel du Despair. A slight moldy smell emanating from my closet, but the rest of the place is okay for now. We'll see how long it takes before I exile myself to get the carpet replaced. Grrrr...Okay then...having straightened up that little mess (more or less--new bookcases are on order just because), let us continue with this evening's festivities.

First up from D2, a site dedicated to space architecture. Pretty cool!

For reasons that elude me, Fox News decided to post some pictures of Nazi Germany's "Amerika Bomber," a hypersonic vehicle that was skirt/bounce off of the atmosphere before reaching and dropping a nuclear device on New York City. The U.S. government has been looking at a vehicle like this for awhile. I confess to a certain curiosity about the plane, but don't think I'd want to fly in it.

For reasons that amuse me, I am posting this link to Jerry Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. It's relevant, folks, regardless of the type of bureaucracy you work for. Just sayin'.

Okay, I'm sorry, if you're in the world's tallest building, there's no such thing as a minor lift (elevator) “incident." As Dr. OZMG might say, "Eep!"



Space exploration and education is always a favorite topic of mine. Here's something from my NASA PAO (Public Affairs Office) feed:

RELEASE: 10-039


NASA AND TEXAS INSTRUMENTS USE HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TO BRING MATH AND SCIENCE TOPICS INTO HIGH SCHOOL CLASSROOMS

HOUSTON -- NASA and Texas Instruments are using the theme of human space exploration to develop digital libraries of math and science problems for high school students. The goal is to bring real-world topics in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM, into classrooms to spark students' excitement and interest in these critical career fields.

The collaboration will produce two digital libraries. One, called Exploring Space Through Math: Applications in High School Mathematics, will provide problems based on NASA data that are set in the context of space exploration. The project material will cover almost the entire high school math curriculum, with applications in Algebra 1, Geometry, Algebra 2, and Pre-Calculus.

The other digital library, named Science at Work: Exploring Space with NASA-AP, will contain questions for Advanced Placement classes. This program seeks to develop and test problems in calculus, statistics, physics, chemistry and biology.

"As students solve real problems NASA faces in space exploration, they will practice during high school and college the skills necessary to pursue a career in a STEM field," said Charles Lloyd, NASA's lead for the effort and program manager for Human Research Program Education and Outreach at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston. "NASA and Texas Instruments are passionate about motivating the next generation's interest in science and math subjects and equipping these students to take us farther into space and improve our lives here on Earth."

The libraries of questions will use NASA applications and data while incorporating Texas Instruments' math learning technology. Each problem includes student and teacher editions to help the teacher link content to higher concepts.

"Our goal is to make STEM subjects more fun and interactive," said Werner Garciano, director of Professional Development for Texas Instruments' Education Technology. "Working with NASA is a great opportunity to bring exciting, real-world math experiences into the classroom. Our collaboration will expand the digital content and professional development that Texas Instruments provides teachers, and will help engage students more deeply in math. Together, we believe these activities will break through to students who have never considered a STEM career path."

Both projects will be available in the fall of 2010 on NASA's Web site. With this program, NASA continues its investment in engaging and retaining students in STEM disciplines critical to the agency's future engineering, scientific, and technical missions. For more information about NASA's education programs, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/education

For more information about NASA's Human Research Program Education and

Outreach, visit:

http://humanresearch.jsc.nasa.gov/education.asp  

The digital libraries also will be available through Texas Instruments' Teachers Teaching with Technology workshops and online at the Texas Instruments' Activities Exchange at:

http://education.ti.com/educationportal/activityexchange/activity_list.do?cid=us

-end-

Ever wonder how much blood and treasure is being wasted at one of your corporate meetings? Check this out.

Speaking of Dr. OZMG, she sent me this little moment of surrealism from The Onion.

This was sent to everyone at Marshall Space Flight Center by someone named Markeeva Morgan. I should probably know who Markeeva is, but regardless, I liked this link from TED about questioning our assumptions.

From Tracy: Here's another space policy author I probably need to review.

For aspiring high school and college students interested in a) space-based solar power and b) winning $2,000 for your trouble, there's a contest sponsored out of India that is offering a prize for just such a thing.

Boeing has executed the first flight of the 747-8 freighter, the largest aircraft it has ever built.

From Erika: For my local readers interested in developing their leadership skills, here's a program for the Huntsville/Madison County area.

From Dar: A group activity on "crowdsourcing change." No, I don't know what that means, either. Oh, wait. Try this:

“Crowdsourcing Change” will be a highly participatory event where attendees will have an opportunity to help three “Social Changers” who are using –or trying to use — the social web for the common good. The way it will work is that presenters will first explain the change they are trying to achieve through social media. Attendees, with the help of a moderator, will then provide feedback, ideas, constructive criticism and concrete instructions to help the presenters succeed. This is a great opportunity to learn and to have an impact.”

Just check it out.

On a similar line of thought, here's an article on how IBM uses social media to encourage innovation by their employees.

Some folks are still trying to stop "nerd" from being a dirty word, lest the general herd mentality in our public schools eventually pounds the snot out of anyone with an I.Q. one point higher than the average...which, of course, would lower the average, but I digress. IMHO, one can send bullies to as many counseling and Kum-Bah-Yah sessions as one wants; but until the social dynamics, rules, and rewards/punishments are restructured and enforced, weak-chinned, brainy kids will continue to get stuffed into lockers by their less intelligent, more muscular peers. Again, just sayin'.

An editorial by Apollo 7 astronaut Walt Cunningham on the recent proposed budget cut to NASA. Mr. Cunningham says things pretty well on his own, so I don't need to comment further.

Speaking of Dar, one of her favorite topics is using the Internet to make government more open and accessible to private citizens. Here's NASA's site dedicated to doing just that. And there's also this bit from Dar herself on doing science outreach at your local saloon.

From Homer Hickam: a new short story on the future of our space program.

And believe it or not, I have cleared out my inbox for the moment. Be good to yourselves and others. You never know when someone else is having a bad day.

Vietnam, Afghanistan, and What to Do Next

Jerry Pournelle has link to a thoughtful piece on what lessons American leaders should learn from Vietnam and apply to Afghanistan. And, as always, Pournelle's comments are worth reading. How's this for a hook? "Those who hadn't known that the US won the war in Viet Nam especially need to read this."

Returning to Business As Usual

The three weeks off have cured me of a creeping burnout, but they have also curbed my enthusiasm for things here when I'm still entranced by things I saw in Europe. I'll get back to "normal" in due course, but don't be too surprised if I continue to dwell on the past and my vacation on this page for a bit. I also owe Darlene the Science Cheerleader a short piece on some of NASA's public outreach efforts on the web, so that will show up on her blog in the next day or so. Meanwhile, I need to clear some science and technology stuff from my inbox, and this seemed like a good night to do it.

I haven't read Jerry Pournelle's blog (or much of anything else) in three weeks. He has a series of reflections on healthcare, the rule of law, and the war in Afghanistan that deserve reading.

Wired Science has a blog discussing the Augustine Panel hearings. Apparently while I was away Congress was less than receptive to some of the ideas coming out of the panel's deliberations. Interesting, since they decide which bills will get paid. This ain't over by a long shot.

Facebook, where most of my vacation articles are being published first because their picture-uploading app is better, now has a "population" nearly equal to the U.S.

Lockheed Martin has a good page of communication tools for the Orion crew exploration vehicle.

Here's a site developed by some young professionals that talks about the benefits of space exploration and includes a petition form to help you tell your elected representative(s) why space is important to you.

A slew of news from Hu:

• Commissioner Wants 500000 Letters To Save Shuttle Program
• Can a letter-writing campaign save Florida jobs?
• Commissioner Wants 500000 Letters To Save Shuttle Program
• Space Coast organizing letter-writing effort to support NASA
• Help Save America's Human Space Exploration Program
• How Will Future Of Spaceflight Affect Space Coast?
• Don't plan your shuttle going-away party for 2010. Try 2011.

From my NewSpace News feed from the Space Frontier Foundation:

• A story about Boeing teaming up with Bigelow Aerospace to bid on NASA's Commercial Crew Transport System.
• The Rocket Racing League seems to be in trouble. They're losing their lease on hangar space in Las Cruces.

That's it for now. Be patient, y'all. I'll get back to "Bart-normal" eventually. In the meantime, enjoy the quiet.

Potpourri LXXXVI

Just a few items this evening....

This will be a relief to future space travelers: the Chinese have banned bad breath in outer space.

And from the Down Under Defense Expert (DUDE), a unique underground village/resort in Australia called Coober Pedy (coo-bur PEE-dee).

A 4,500-year-old skeleton has been found on an Italian beach.

Kid can't read? Try ordering this program, developed by Roberta Pournelle, wife of science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle.

Potpourri XXXV

You know there used to be this old-fashioned concept called "class." Class is a state of mind, more than anything else. It's the sort of attitude that says you're a person of standards, of some standing. It's the unspoken thing that tells you not to tell particular jokes in mixed company or not make a professional or political fight personal. Why? Because it's just the sort of thing that a gentleman or lady would not do. Never mind, we're a classless society now--in more ways than one--which is how a reporter can make a crack about hoping Rush Limbaugh's kidneys fail, and President Obama laughs! Really now, Mr. Obama. We expected better of you.

The Times of London has an interview with King Abdullah of Jordan. Among other bits of good news: he expects Israel to negotiate with all 57 states of the Arab League, and if there aren't negotiations, then there is going to be another Arab-Israeli next year. On the plus side, the Pope's visit is going well. Thank Heaven for small favors.

Also from the UK: The Daily Mail is reporting on the upcoming Shuttle mission as its "most dangerous" to Hubble.

Star Trek is looking at a $75 million weekend. Not a record-breaker, but it's been a long time since a Trek film made that kind of money on opening weekend. Another thought on why I liked the new movie: the lack of condescension. Some of the Next Generation movies suffered from that. Want an example? Here's Jean-Luc Picard talking to a 21st-century primitive about his (liberal) future superiority:

"No money? You mean you don't get paid?"
"Acquisition of wealth is no longer a driving force in our lives. We wish to better ourselves & the rest of humanity."

Barf. Anyhow, I hold with Malcolm Reynolds in Serenity:

"Sure as I know anything, I know this - they will try again. Maybe on another world, maybe on this very ground swept clean. A year from now, ten? They'll swing back to the belief that they can make people... better. And I do not hold to that."

The reason I like the cast and acting of the new Star Trek is that they're recognizably human. The "We're better in the future" attitude is gone. They're still people, and I can relate to them. Just sayin'.

Jerry Pournelle always has interesting things to say about politics, and his take on the departure of Arlen Specter from the Republican Party deserves consideration if conservatives hope for their party to gain a governing majority again.

Also from Pournelle...recommend reading: The Lays of Rome, including Horatius at the Gate. Once considered part of our normal education, 60-odd years ago.

Just off the wall, but funny: The Onion has a story on Touchstone Pictures threatening to make a sequel to Coyote Ugly if box office receipts don't improve. Memorable (bowlderized) quote: "We are dead serious, you a$$#oles," Zaiff said. "You're going to like what we tell you to like, end-of-f@#$ing-story. Now fill up those seats, or so help me God, it's Coyote Ugly II: Get Uglier."

Joanne Manaster is conducting an online poll on which celebrity she looks like. She is then going to up the ante by having a computer analyze her facial features and compare them with said celebrities and see if "the wisdom of crowds" actually matches reality. My vote still goes to Lynda Carter. We'll see what the computer says.

Jeff Foust has some good stuff "from the archives" on Norm Augustine, who is chairing President Obama's panel/review of the Constellation Program and has had numerous dealings with NASA before this.

A fellow space blogger, Douglas Mallette, has some good thoughts on extending Shuttle. One must, indeed, wonder what the future of America's human space flight program is to be. I'd like to think that Augustine and his panel would keep things moving on plan, but while I do have a dog in that fight (writing for Ares), it's not my place to tell the judge that a friend's dog is better than someone else's...or do I? Here's one of those situations where Dar's hopes for a collaborative Office of Technology Assessment might come in handy.

The War is Boring blog on the U.S. Navy's concerns about China's new "carrier-killer" missiles.

I suppose I should quit there. Monday is bound to be a busy news day, and I'll be under the radar, watching it all. Peace.

Book Review: A Step Farther Out

I thought I'd get in one more book review for '08 before returning to my European trip planning and language learning. In this case, I decided to pick up a book that I thought might restore my faith in the future possibilities of technology (it's been a little disheartening lately, believe it or not). The book I selected to reread is A Step Farther Out by science, technology, political, and science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle.

Pournelle has had a profound influence on my outlook for the future, and on my beliefs in the benefits to be derived from a spacefaring civilization. He is in the category of "seriously smart" people who often inhabit the halls of NASA (he worked on human factors, among other things, during the Apollo program), having degrees in psychology, political science, and engineering. Thus, he is proudly of the sort who does not suffer fools gladly. You can look up his entry on Wikipedia, or visit his web site, which is a permanent link on this site.

Now, to A Step Farther Out. Written in the late '70s and compiled from a variety of columns written in the mid-'70s, the book addresses some of the wilder scientific and technological speculations that might make "survival with style" in the future possible. These include nuclear power (fission and fusion), space solar power, asteroid mining, ocean thermal conversion (OTEC), magnetohydrodynamic power, and the like.

Survival with style means that all human beings will not eventually slog downhill toward a future that is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short," but one where everyone at least has access to the benefits of the advanced society and conveniences we enjoy today. To overcome the problems of declining resources on one world, according to the Pournelle doctrine, we must tap into the material and energy resources of space. For further improvement of life on Earth, he even suggests exporting our more polluting enterprises--particularly metal production--into space, turning Earth into a great parkland. And Pournelle points out that the best way to reduce worldwide population is to make everyone rich (note where the highest declines in birth rate are). And according to Pournelle, the best way to make everyone rich is to make the goods of civilization, both physical and intellectual, so common as to be easily affordable by all: the simple law of supply and demand.

The alternatives to this high-technology, advanced society, Pournelle warns, are not pretty, and pretty much end up with the West becoming poor through increased taxation and regulation in an attempt to redistribute wealth to the Third World, or the West becoming a walled enclave that is eventually overrun by its poorer, hungrier, and less educated neighbors--one can already see signs of this today, 30 years after A Step Farther Out was written. The alternatives Pournelle was discussing were all feasible with the technologies we had 30 years ago. And perhaps that's the most infuriating part--we haven't done most of what he was discussing! So now we face yet another energy crisis, another surge of collectivism, an embattled space program, and even greater pressures on the world's resources, and yet little to nothing has been done about promoting the grand future Pournelle proposed.

Now Pournelle makes it quite clear that he is not for polluting the Earth--indeed, the notion of exporting all the pollution off the planet has a mighty utopian ring to it--but he also does not suffer environmentalists, collectivists, Marxists, "Club of Rome" enthusiasts, or anti-technology advocates without a certain amount of disdain. In the 30 years since A Step was written, an entire generation, including my own, got raised on environmentalism of a particular flavor, and so his condescension probably won't sell well without a lot of arguments. That said, high technology has advanced considerably since 1979. For instance, Moore's Law, which did and still does show computers doubling capacity every two years, has led to a drastic improvement in computing ability. The 8088 chip of 1980, for instance, had around 50,000 transistors on it; today, the top-of-the-line chips have two billion transistors. We have had a 25-year expansion in the U.S. economy and standard of living that is unprecedented in world history. That same generation that was raised on environmentalism was also raised in a world where space travel was commonplace (yea, nearly boring!), along with ever-improving computers, telephones, personal data assistants, and ever-new high-tech gadgets; so Pournelle's message isn't impossible to sell today.

The biggest blocks to A Step Farther Out today are the same as they were 30 years ago--they're political, not technical. With Republicans (if not old-style conservatism) out of favor, Pournelle is often ignored. The economy is experiencing a recession, so far only two or three quarters long--therefore, capitalism must be broken! Republicans who campaigned as conservatives in the '90s spent like liberals in the '00s--therefore, conservatism must be broken! The U.S. military is stronger and more expensive than the next 30 nations' armed forces combined, but we've lost just over 4,000 men in six years in Iraq and Afghanistan, 1 percent of our losses in our four years of fighting World War Two--therefore, the military must be evil and broken! Western Civilization did horrible things in its imperial past while the former colonies are still poor--therefore, Western Civ is evil and out of favor and broken! Now, I happen to believe none of this, but the statements I just wrote are running loose through the media and the culture right now, and they are some of the reasons that a pro-technology, pro-defense, pro-capitalism, pro-Western civilization, pro-conservative message might have a hard time getting through to the general population.

Nevertheless, Pournelle offers convincing arguments. It might not hurt for my out-of-favor conservative friends to give A Step Farther Out another look. It might return them to their principles and give them a better vision for the future.

Socialism, Distributism, Etc.

First, there's this bit from Jerry Pournelle on what "distributism" is: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2008/Q4/view541.html#Distributism

Then there's this bit from the Kansas City Star, which states that calling Obama a "socialist" is code language for "black." http://voices.kansascity.com/node/2493 (Stupid question here, but why should anyone require code for something that is patently obvious?)

Weird world.

Space and Science in the New Era

"Forgive me. I was wrong to despair."
--Legolas, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

A few days ago, I felt overwhelmed by, and decided to rant about, the larger forces threatening to erode our scientific and technical future (you know, because I have nothing better to do with my time). I was talking with a guy from my church this morning about these concerns when the answer just sort of fell out of my mouth:

"The only way this nation is going to be able to afford all of the things it's committed to doing (welfare, defense spending, etc.) is to be rich. Science and technology are what have made us rich. We need to continue spending on those things if we want to afford the future we want."

So, great. I have a theory. Now comes the hard part: what do I do with it?

Jerry Pournelle, in his 1976 book A Step Farther Out, calls this approach "survival with style." Survival is one thing--we can muddle along or conserve or reduce our lifestyles and survive, though the future won't be nearly as exciting--surviving with style means continuing to have progress, improving lifestyles, and ongoing advancement. There are plenty of technologies we haven't tried in earnest yet: ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), tidal power, space solar power, safer nuclear plants, helium-3 fusion, etc. If we're serious about having a better future, some or all of these should at least be attempted.

The whole point of scientific progress is that it must progress. And that progress requires a few basic conditions to continue:

• Funding for research.
• Free and open communications for sharing findings.
• A stable political system capable of responding to changes.
• Private property and intellectual property rights, to allow inventors to profit from their work.
• A reasonably stable currency to ensure value.
• Respect for, and equality under, an impartially administered rule of law.
• Freedom of the press to ensure citizen audit of government actions.
• Civilian control of the military.
• Separation of the state from state-formed churches.
• Social mobility and equality of opportunity.
• Religious tolerance.
• Safety, security, and peace.
• Educated students capable of learning and advancing knowledge.
• Representative government.
• Non-confiscatory taxation.

The whole of these concepts represent some of the most important advances over 500 years of Western Civilization. How many of these basic concepts are now in serious danger? What can individuals do to maintain them? Whatever route one takes or what issue one chooses to support, there's plenty of work to go around.

Book Reviews: Inferno and Inferno

No, I haven't gotten my books wrong. There are, in fact, two books named Inferno: one by the medieval poet Dante Aligheri (translated by John Ciardi), and one by contemporary science fiction writers Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle.

Dante's Inferno is well known, starting with his warning above the gates of Hell: "Abandon all hope ye who enter" to its circles and increasingly creative ways of punishing sinners of various sorts. As a work of poetry, Dante's Inferno is one of the legendary pieces of Western literature. Not being able to speak Italian very well, I picked up the Ciardi translation of this piece of the "Divine Comedy," as well as Purgatorio and Paradiso, all of which were dedicated to Dante's great love, Beatrice. All three books, I am told, are written in superb Italian. I cannot speak to that, but I can say that Ciardi has done a master's job of putting these works into well-spoken and rhyming English.

What, then, is the Inferno? It is, quite simply, a travelogue through Hell. Dante, writing as himself, is taken on a guided tour of the infernal reaches by Virgil, the Latin poet he most admired. It starts in lighter realms, among the virtuous pagans, who obeyed the Ten Commandments, but were never baptized into the Christian faith, and moves its hideous way down to the Devil himself. Along the way, Virgil explains to Dante what the various levels or "Circles" of Hell mean, and why people are punished they way that they are. The sins start mildly, with the carnal and the gluttonous, and work their way further down through heresy, violence, blasphemy, and eventually betrayal of benefactors (think Judas Iscariot).

During this tour, Dante also encounters people he knew in life who have since passed on, to make clear to his 14th century audience (he completed the Comedy in 1308) what sorts of people he thought would end up in which circles. Given that Dante was already in exile at this point in his career, it is not surprising that he takes potshots at many who put him into that situation, not omitting a few Popes. The Purgatorio and Paradiso take the reader on similar guided tours through Purgatory and Heaven itself. Inferno is always described as the most interesting of the three works, perhaps because it is the most colorful or pernicious. Individuals unable to control their baser instincts are chased around great circles, whipped along by demons, while liars and bad counselors are forced into rivers of excrement and spout as much whenever they open their mouths. It is grotesquery with a purpose, and the purpose is to turn the reader away from sin. The concerns of the Comedy are mostly those of the Middle Ages, and the description of Hell is as "scientific" as one can make it--it is written about a generation after St. Thomas Aquinas's Summa Theologica, which attempted to reconcile faith and reason.

What, then, is one to make of a work written by a couple of science fiction writers neary 700 years later? Try to imagine, if you will, a 20th century science fiction writer (who falls from a hotel balcony after drinking too much at a science fiction convention) finding himself in the Hell described by Dante. You might think you're in for a bit of depressing literature. Such is not the case. Inferno is hilarious, if one has a sense of humor tuned to the dark and slightly twisted side.

Niven and Pournelle's character, a man named Allen Carpentier (a fancy way of restyling his actual name, Carpenter), does not accept Hell. Nor is he terribly accepting of Heaven, for that matter. He spends most of the novel trying to understand where he is, and what's going on. He is vaguely familiar with Dante, and so assumes that someone or someones have recreated it for strange purposes of their own. And yet along the way, Carpentier's guide Benito shows him 20th century equivalents to the sinners of Dante's era.

Who would have thought that individuals who prevent bridges being built (environmentalists) might end up in the circle of hell designated for Wasters or individuals offering divinity degrees through the mail might end up in the circle set aside for simony? (Don't chastise Niven and Pournelle too much for conservative-mindedness: they also have a special circle of hell for individuals who destroy the environment.) And yet it's not just this retelling and recontextualizing of Dante's Hell that makes this book enjoyable, it's the way their character reacts to it. Where a religious-minded person might see the terror of demons and furies of Dis, the authors' SF writer sees updrafts, upon which he might build a glider to fly out of Hell. Or, in the circle where one previously found vicious dogs, one now finds self-guiding attack sports cars, which Carpentier and his companions decide to drive to get where they want to go. And there's also some of Carpentier's wilder speculations on where he actually is that make the humor that much grimmer. The SF writer's desire to use what's available to solve problems is so typical, so wonderfully goofy, that one can only admire Niven and Pournelle's chutzpah for suggesting them.

And yet the authors have a purpose here. As Carpentier travels deeper into Hell, he starts asking more and more serious questions--why are people forced to suffer in this way? Why would (a) God allow such a place? What purpose would such a Hell serve?

I fear such a retelling of Inferno will offend believers, and yet the book offers good lessons for the questioners in the SF community. It's a book, oddly, that provides a route through to faith for someone who might be questioning otherwise.

I highly recommend Dante's Inferno, as well as the Niven and Pournelle version (there's a sequel coming out soon). The two books, together, just might scare the Hell out of you.

More on the Mess

More from Dr. Pournelle: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2008/Q3/view537.html#Friday

He is no lover of government intervention, but as a child of the Great Depression, he has a different perspective than I do. He also recommends an editorial by John Paulson that deserves consideration. If I understand Paulson correctly, he favors government purchase of preferred stock of companies/banks/institutions thought to be critical to the system rather than buying bad or low-value assets. As he puts it:

This mechanism -- purchases of senior preferred stock with warrants in troubled institutions -- addresses the problems with the Treasury plan. The financial market is stabilized, companies get recapitalized, failures are avoided, debt securities are supported, and time is gained for illiquid assets to mature.

This would make the government more of a conservator than an hostile takeover agent. One thing Paulson does not make explicit is how much this purchase of preferred stock would cost. However, he seems to hint that his approach would be a better way to spend $700B, not a way to spend less.

I do know this: Obama wants to spend more federal money than has even been contemplated to date. He has made this quite clear. It seems unlikely that such spending would not occur without increasing taxes. Increasing taxes in the midst of a recession is precisely the wrong thing to do. If you take away more money from "the rich," who are the ones investing and making the economy go, just as they're losing money from a tanking market, there will be even less money available to expand the economy, hire workers, or buy products and services.

Another idea I heard suggested dropping the capital gains and corporate tax rates. Obama himself has admitted that, given the current economic circumstances, he wouldn't automatically repeal the Bush tax cuts, so he must have some inkling that raising taxes in the current situation is bad. Economic growth is necessary, or the whole structure falls. We've had approximately 25 years of economic expansion. We're much wealthier now than we were in 1983. Maybe we can afford the $700B, but we'll need something to offset the expense. That means dropping federal expenditures elsewhere (McCain wants to do that) or increasing incomes. "Stimulus checks" are not the answer, allowing people to keep more of their money is.

So: do a conservator-type bailout, decrease corporate/capital gains taxes, increase economic growth, restore confidence, and make the Bush individual tax rate cuts permanent. Maybe it would work. Maybe. But who's to stop this mess from happening again? Oy. I've got a headache. Time to stop thinking for the evening, I think.

A Little Utopian Thinking, Conservative-style

This could rightly be called the Pournelle Doctrine, as it's 90% congruent with the writings of Jerry Pournelle. It's a vision of America as leader, not dominator. One can always dream.

2008-2058

Quoting John Adams, the U.S. President says, “We are friends of liberty everywhere, but guardians only of our own.” America rescinds the Bush Doctrine of transformation in the Muslim world, leaving the internal governments of the Arab world to the aspirations of their people. However, America retains the right to invade and punish any nation found to actively support terrorism. Reconstruction and aid will be based on the behavior of the successor government and its willingness to restrain radical elements in its midst.

In practical terms, this also means a draw-down of U.S. military commitments in Europe (especially the former Yugoslavia and Germany) and Japan. As a matter of honor, America maintains its bases in Iraq only until the Iraqis are able to withstand incursions from Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia with little to no assistance.

The military has by no means been disbanded, though. The Navy is back up to the Reagan-era levels, with 16 active carrier battle groups and an ability to strike nearly anywhere within 24 hours. American national interests have been made clear to the world: free and safe passage of innocent ships anywhere in the world; no kidnapping of American civilians; no negotiating with al-Qaeda or related groups; free flowing of oil at market prices.

The Army has a new and more straightforward task: manning the ramparts of the new security wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and tightened security fence along the U.S.-Canadian border. With illegal immigration reduced to a trickle and welfare rolls likewise reduced, there are fewer jobs that “Americans will not do,” given the proper incentives.

Attached to this massive shift in immigration and border security has been a top-to-bottom reform of the Transportation Security Agency. No longer political appointees, the senior officers of the TSA are now seasoned professionals with backgrounds in civil or military security. These professionals, in turn, are helping to root out inefficient, ineffective, and intrusive security procedures at our nation’s airports and other transportation facilities. New technologies and better databases, too, are helping to “profile” potential terrorists based on behavior and background rather than “race.”

Domestically, the federal budget is down from its record high of $3 trillion. Even at half that size, better use is being made of it, from massive investments in nuclear power to ground-solar, wind, fuel cell, and space-solar power. These changes have not made OPEC happy, but they have had to learn to content themselves with steady incomes based on petroleum purchases for plastics rather than massive purchases to fuel cars and trucks. The American public breathed a sigh of relief when the last base in Iraq was dismantled after the fall of the Iranian theocracy.

The combined reforms of the consumption tax and flat welfare checks to all citizens have freed up literally billions of dollars once spent on auditors, accountants, and tax assessors. Most taxes are included up-front in purchases and transferred electronically to the Department of the Treasury. Imports face a low 10% tax, which caused much heartache in China and Europe at first. However, once our trading partners saw an end to complicated rules for import duties on specific items, they realized that what they lost on some items they more than made up for in reduced legal and paperwork fees.

Educationally, America has undergone yet another seismic shift. “Opt-out” testing procedures have enabled students to avoid, skip, or drop out of schools, to the vast relief of many teachers frustrated by “No Child Left Behind.” With smaller class sizes, education has now become a more selective (and lucrative) career. Education reform at the state and local levels has enabled the federal government to reduce its financial and curriculum mandates. Some of those reforms have included a requirement that teachers be educated or at least certified in the subjects they teach. This movement has been particularly popular at the elementary and secondary school levels, though some reactionaries at college campuses continue to insist on guaranteed tenure and education-only credentials.

The space-solar power mentioned earlier could not have come about without an active national commitment to space transportation, both public and private. NASA has returned to its old role as explorer and a facilitator and distributor of aerospace technology while the private sector has gone forth to conquer the near-Earth heavens. Military spacecraft and government space stations still exist, but they are quickly becoming outnumbered by the number of private space stations, orbital outposts, and lunar bases harvesting the vast riches of the near-Earth asteroids. And NASA still remains the premier organization for exploring the unknown. While private-sector ventures have just begun supplying the first two Mars bases, NASA continues building its first crewed expedition to Europa, as well as the first orbital cyclotron and first automated probes to Alpha Centauri and other nearby stars.

Overseas, the world was forced to admit that this was a different, and in many ways better, America. No longer imposing its lifestyle or form of government at the point of a gun, it has become content to tend its garden, grow its businesses, raise its families, and pursue its technologies on its own. The tariff changes, education reforms, and commitments to space and energy-efficient technologies have again made American schools, students, and workers valuable commodities, even in the population-stabilized India and depopulating China. It is not “one world,” as the world-government advocates had striven for, but it is, truly, a different world from any seen before.