Well, That's A Relief

For those of you worried about an asteroid-induced Apocalypse, at least one asteroid has been moved down the list as an imminent threat. Here's the story from NASA:

Oct. 7, 2009

Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
dwayne.c.brown@nasa.gov

DC Agle

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-393-9011
agle@jpl.nasa.gov
RELEASE: 09-232
NASA REFINES ASTEROID APOPHIS' PATH TOWARD EARTH

PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036. The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8. "Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii's 88-inch telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea. Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis.

Measurements from the Steward Observatory's 90-inch Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's calculations. The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth's surface. "The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."

The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids. NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near Earth-Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Cornell University operates the Arecibo Observatory under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Va.

For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch

Books to Save in the Event of the End of Civilization

I know, this isn't a happy topic, but it's also an excellent way to focus the mind because it causes the individual to think about what's important, good, and fundamental about their society. Below is a partial list of the items I've collected over the years that I consider "keepers." My complete library can be found at LibraryThing.com. I probably need to add more. I've also solicited inputs from friends on Facebook and Twitter to see what people say...if anything.

Non-Fiction and Reference

• The Bible (couple of versions)
• The Book of Common Prayer
• The Qu'ran
• Physics
• Meteorology Today
• Gray's Anatomy (actually, I think I gave this to one of my bartenders in Orlando--her kid was going into medicine, and I was trying to encourage a bright young mind)
• U.S. Army Field Survival Manual
• A Step Farther Out, by Jerry Pournelle
• The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Edward Gibbon

Fiction

• Atlas Shrugged, by Ayn Rand
• The Fountainhead, by Ayn Rand
• The Romantic Manifesto, by Ayn Rand
• The Past Through Tomorrow, by Robert A. Heinlein
• Expanded Universe, by Robert A. Heinlein
• Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds!, by Arthur C. Clarke
• The Complete Short Stories, Ernest Hemingway
• The Norton Anthology of Modern American Poetry
• The Hugo Award Winners, Vols. 1 & 2
• The Great Gatsby, by F. Scott Fitzgerald
• The Riverside Shakespeare, ed. G. Blakemore Evans
• Shogun, by James Clavell
• War Day, by James Kunetka and Whitley Strieber
• A Gift Upon the Shore, by M. K. Wren
• Fahrenheit 451, by Ray Bradbury
• Foundation, by Isaac Asimov
• I, Robot, by Isaac Asimov
• Lucifer's Hammer, by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle

Friend Recommendations

"Well, as much as I find them loathsome, contradictory and -- depending the translation -- poorly written, all the so-called holy books: Torah, New Testament, Quran, the Mahabharata. But I would include them with the other great mythologies, The Iliad, The Aeneid, The Odyssey, The Tain, the Epic of Gilgamesh as they really did encompass some of the earliest rules of law."

"The Lost World"

"I like anything by John Irving and Ernest Hemingway"

"Homesteading Space, obviously. The most thorough history books I could find, and as many science texts as I had room for. And A Canticle for Liebowitz, just for the irony."

"I would preserve the 'Great Books' collection from St. Johns College. They basically run the gamut from history, literature, mathematics, etc. Always been fascinated by their curriculum."

"I was thinking Cat in the Hat & Where the Sidewalk Ends. Oh, and the Calvin & Hobbes collection!"

"Where the Wild Things Are"

"All the Discworld books!"

Potpourri XLIII

I'll talk about what things might be done to make a better future later in the week (true "survival with style"), but I am not done with surviving the somewhat darker future yet. Bear with me, I'm not a complete pessimist, but I do believe in being prepared. Thus, today's dose of guns, gold, and groceries:

• The local gun shop here is Madison Guns & Ammo, which also sells "pink tasers and pepper sprays" for the ladies. I kid you not.
• Another article from Scott, this one on the logic behind buying gold and silver.
• A site I heard advertised on the local talk radio station today for people interested in growing a "crisis garden" was selling seeds that are not genetically altered. Why does this matter? Well, as I've heard it told, you can get record crops with genetically altered plants (e.g. corn/maize), but they're only fertile for a season, then they die out. This, apparently, ensures that you buy from that seed producer next year. Apparently "victory gardens" are making a comeback.
• I also plan a separate blog on "books to preserve in the event of the end of civilization." No, I'm not kidding, and yes, I will talk about happier things in a bit. Just sayin', as we say on Facebook.

A link from Martin, asking, "True?" he offers this link on a Creedence Clearwater Revival song and some of the stories behind it. Yes, it is true that Agnew supported NASA's plans for Mars exploration. The rest I cannot confirm off the top of my head. Amateur historians welcome.

My buddy Mike Mealling (from Masten Aerospace) has an interesting take on the future direction of NASA.

And if you're wondering how I maintain good humor in the midst of a bad economy, here are a couple of ways:

• Today I bought the full four-glass set of Star Trek drinking glasses from Burger King.
• Once or twice a year, I buy myself food from Chicago. This includes pizza, Italian beef, cheesecake, etc. Tastes of Chicago might be one of the few places I can get a decent pizza "delivered" to my home.
• Another is Featured Foods, which delivers Gino's East thick-crust, "Chicago style" pizza.
• Yet another, if you're interested in properly seasons thin-crust pizza, is Home Run Inn.

Potpourri XLI

I started worrying about the end of the world during the halcyon days of the 1980s, when the only(!) problem we had was nuclear anninhilation from the Soviet Union. Some of the same stuff you need to survive a nuclear war can also be used in the event of a hurricane or establishing a base on the Moon or Mars, come to think of it. Twelve years in Florida will cause you to think about these things. I also had a brief attack of survivalist paranoia after 9/11, but eventually calmed down. That doesn't mean I threw away any of my research. What follows below is a sampling of the stuff I uncovered for people who don't intend to depend on the government if civilization goes pear-shaped.

My survivalist-minded friends inform me that there are only a few things absolutely worth having in the event of civilization's collapse, with the top three being "guns, gold, and groceries." And if you're a right-wing nut job like me, you're hearing or reading a lot about that sort of thing these days, depending on what web site you read. So in the spirit of surviving the Zombie Apocalypse with style, here's a useful list of things you ought to own when the solid waste hits the ventilator:

• Weapons, ammunition, and cleaning supplies (recommended outlets: Bass Pro Shops, Gander Mountain, or your local gun shop. If your neighborhood doesn't have these, you're just going to have to rely on the kindness of strangers or hope you have some of the other items below.) For close-range fighting, the sidearm; for long-range shooting and hunting, the rifle; for more practical self-defense, the shotgun--sawed-off or otherwise.
• Gold (http://www.swissamerica.com/ or http://www.golddealer.com/ were recommended to me at one point)
• Canned food (your local grocery store should be sufficient for buying this stuff, but other sites provide kits that will meet your needs for a month, several months, or a year, depending on how you place your bets.
• Basic survival skills. You can look here or check out the U.S. Army's Field Survival Manual for reference.
• High-quality outdoor gear, including hunting/fishing gear, suitable for where you live or where you plan to migrate. The outdoor stores above work just as well for these sorts of items.
• Four-wheel drive vehicle. As near as I can tell, the best of the lot is the Land Rover, but those are a tad expensive. Still--you're going to need somewhere to keep a portion of all your other stuff, right?
• Trade goods (e.g. priceless antiques, high-quality whiskey, useful/rare books, solar-powered watches, tools--recommended sources: wherever you can find them, but I recommend buying originals like Rolex or Chivas Royal Salute or Steuben crystal, not knockoffs).
• Means of obtaining and storing gasoline, ethanol, or other fuel, along with a generator.
• The Book of Common Prayer, The Bible, and a few other sacred texts. Inevitably, people are still going to be born, get sick, get married, and die, and these books provide the standard words to cover such eventualities. If you're an atheist, you might not need any of the above, but I will, and I'd appreciate it very much of something more than "good riddance" was spoken over my body. If you go before me, I'll say a prayer for you anyway. Promise.
• Practical texts for rebuilding civilization. This includes things like How Stuff Works, auto repair manuals, basic engineering (yes, including aerospace--might as well dream big!), chemistry, physics, agriculture, cloth- and clothing-making, and biology texts. And, oh yeah, some basic education or people who have a basic education in all of the above.
• Dogs. Preferably big 'uns, not lap dogs. They can hear and smell better than we can, serve as good guards, and odds are they'll be more loyal than some people, come the day.
• Loyal friends with some or all of the above. Most likely these are country folks. I'm cool with that, are you?

What do you mean, nobody asked?

*

On a completely different topic, this site looks pretty cool: FutureMe.org, where you can send an email to yourself in the future. I sent one for November 1, after I've been to Europe and finished up with the launch of Ares I-X by then. Of course this all becomes moot if we have the Zombie Apocalypse between now and then, but hope springs eternal.

Just saw this...Former NASA Administrator Michael Griffin is now on Facebook. Wild.

This is an idea I'd like to take on, if I had a few billion in the bank: making a business out of clearing space debris from orbit.

Just saw this link on Dar's site: Nerd Girls.

Dan Linehan has a good interview about his SpaceShipOne: An Illustrated History book on C-SPAN.