Potpourri CXXXII

Let 'er rip...

Buehler? Buehler? Buehler on Twitter? Yes.

How much would it cost to build a real Iron Man suit? I'm guessing a lot.

Japan has a much greater attachment to human-looking robots than Americans, I guess. I just find this dancing robot creepy.

From Tim Bailey: how to really save your favorite science fiction show from going off the air.

So much for calling audibles...Dar has a fun piece on how Penn State is going to start using acoustical science to further flummox visiting quarterbacks. Dar also has a blog on public participation in science. When I told her I wanted her job, she informed me that I'd have to give up sleep. I don't doubt it!

From Jim: a new YouTube feature that might help teenage boys pay better attention to their vocabulary tests, Hot for Words. (Mind you, Mom might not approve.)

Grant Morrison, writer of Batman: Arkham Asylum, has a new title coming out soon from DC Comics: The Return of Bruce Wayne, wherein Bruce is doing a little time traveling. I guess I'm a little behind in my Batman lore. I didn't realize Bruce had left. Hm...

From Doc: The Geek Wants Out. This was his reply to my question, "What's wrong with me that I know who Grant Morrison is, which comics he's written, and why I have them in my archives?" Too funny!

An interstellar probe idea is being revisited.

Electrically charged water in space?

The UK election hung up.


Had to post this. When I was in my lurking phase on Facebook (i.e. going online and reading stuff but not posting), a couple FB friends accused me of unplugging and joining the Amish. Not bloody likely, but that isn't necessarily too bad. At least I'd know why Amish businesses don’t fail. I'll have more thoughts on FB eventually, but first I need to clear out the blog files.

There was another scare in Times Square.

They're in the process of putting a dome on top of the leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico.

Millennials are finding religion online.

Disney toying with the idea of a talking Mickey at the parks.

Cruise ships coming to Florida…

Bigelow Aerospace is marketing inflatable space stations.


Griffin calls Obama space proposals “drivel.”

Open source is NASA’s next frontier.

Oh, by the way, a little note to Constellation haters/deniers: Pad Abort-1 Test was utterly successful.

Potpourri LXXXVII

Let's see, what's out there today? Oh yeah, a weird world. Let's surf together, shall we?

Dar the Science Cheerleader talks about a citizen science workshop at Chicago's Adler Planetarium. Huzzah!

Our British cousins are calling for a debate on the use of autonomous robots capable of killing without a human order. About bloody time. Friendly fire never is, but who do you blame if the machine does it? Whom do you hold liable?

Speaking of robots, here's their warmer, fuzzier side: companion robots.

The Down Under Defense Expert (DUDE) has another weekend sojourn recommendation (so far he's about 8 for 10): this time, a fly-in for Beechcraft airplanes in Tullahoma.

Taylor Dinerman reviews the potholes in space law and policy. Also on The Space Review, my buddy and fellow space geek Pete Garretson analyzes the requirements of space policy.

Another good take on the Augustine Panel. Keep an eye on the public meetings August 5 and 12. That's where we might learn where the Panel will take us. At least we'll know a little more before their report comes out at the end of the month.

New from Hu:

• Lockheed's Aegis ballistic missile defense system has destroyed additional targets. Good timing, because...
• Iran might be a year away from building a nuclear weapon.

Another plane had a bad day on the way from Brazil to somewhere else. Wonder how long before someone blames it on global warming producing stronger thunderstorms.

A good article from The New York Times on how and why we visit museums and what we continue to get out of them. Food for thought as my countdown to museum overload continues.

No doubt there's more excitement out there, but that's it for now.

Potpourri LXXXV

Nothing like getting off to a bumpy start. LaGuardia Airport (LGA) was evacuated for 12 hours after "authorities" (who?) observed a guy carrying a suspicious package. It turned out to be a fake bomb. Stupid.

You can find an image of the first stage of the Ares I-X forward structures on line. The rocket is now about halfway done with its physical stacking. Looks like a giant flashlight right now, but it'll be rocket-shaped in no time! Huzzah!

From Yohon, a Hulu promo clip for the ABC remake of V. Again I must ask: what consumer need is this fulfilling? Or is Hollywood really that bankrupt of ideas?

From Lin: Tired of people yakking on their cell phone while you're trying to eat? You might want to consider this little gadget. Personally, I like the notion of turning off CNN at the airport so I can get some quiet in the concourse.

The state of California is facing major financial problems, which it is trying to shore up by taking money from local municipalities and issuing IOUs to banks. But never mind all that--the state's largest union for government workers has authorized a strike to protest furloughs of state workers. Brilliant. That'll show 'em.

The Democrats in the House have managed to get a health care bill out of committee, which could go to the floor for a vote in September. Time to write my senators and congressman again. I wonder if the House guys actually read the bill this time.

Fox News is reporting that al-Qaeda might have penetrated the British Secret Service (MI5). Whups.

The Japanese are developing a humanoid robot. Also on this video: the Russians are working on plastic surgery to make people taller. Yuck.

Star Trek IV fans may now rejoice: we might soon have transparent aluminum.

And Darlene the Science Cheerleader has some provocative thoughts about women in the science and engineering fields.

Not Welcoming the Advent of Our Robotic Overlords...

Nice to know there are some folks out there who understand the dangers of uncontrolled technological development. The Singularity might be near, but is it necessary?

Potpourri X

Lots of thought-provoking stuff out there, so I'll jump right into it:

NASA

• NASA is offering content for people to develop do-it-yourself podcasts.
• The three-year progress report for the Ares Projects is now available as a two-part video on YouTube.
• The Great Moonbuggy Race will be running at the U.S. Space & Rocket Center this weekend.
• The Futures Channel partnered with the Ares outreach team to develop some videos on careers at NASA.

Other Space Stuff

• Also, April 4 is Yuri's Night, an annual celebration of the first human in space, Yuri Gagarin. The actual day is April 12, but Easter falls on April 12 this year, so the organizers moved it. Huntsville's Yuri's Night event will be at LeeAnn's downtown.
• The Coalition for Space Exploration has announced its Board of Advisors for 2009-2010.
• The Space Access Conference is happening soon.
• The National Space Society's International Space Development Conference is also coming soon!

The Economy

• President Obama says the U.S. Government will now cover any warranty-based maintenance for owners of GM cars. But I'm told on Facebook that I need to "calm down" because "capitalism is fine." Riiiiight.
• Congressman Barney Frank is proposing a bill that would set caps on all employee salaries at AIG, not just the CEO. "Calm down, Bart. Capitalism is just fine." Riiiiiight.

Technology

• Honda is developing thought-controlled machines. Wild.
• The Chi-coms are working on a "kill weapon" for targeting aircraft carriers. Oh, goody.

Politics & Culture

• One of my favorite Law & Order actresses, Angie Harmon, is sick of being called a "racist" because she disagrees with President Obama's policies. Welcome to the club, Angie. I got this accusation shortly after Election Day, and still find it offensive.
• Venezuela-born Miss Universe had a great time at Guantanamo Bay.
• Some advice for Gen Yers entering the workforce in Washington.
• Hat tip to D2 for this item on evaluating "employee engagement" in the workplace.
• Darlene the Science Cheerleader has been in contact with a congressman interested in reviving the Office of Technology Assessment.
• On the lighter side of things, a man in Ohio was arrested for driving drunk on a motorized bar stool.
• An interesting question from one of my acquaintances on LinkedIn.com:

"Is the concept of "Tough Love" at the root of society's problems or is it their answer?"

Some argue "spare the rod, spoil the child" and it seems to me that the underlying philosophy in this also lies in some of the advice on how best to deal with the current economic crisis. But is the deterministic righteousness of tough love the root problem in many and diverse areas of our societies, or is it rather the belief in the "Noble Savage" and laissez-faire indulgence? Or are both just perversions of love, part self-loathing part narcissism?

• An interesting video on the mayor of Missassauga, Ontario. We should all be so good at 88!
• I got hip-deep into a long conversation about capitalism, Obama, etc. on Facebook last night ("Calm down, Bart..."), so I decided to change my status as a way of getting free of the argument. I changed my status to "Bart is moving on to another topic." Some FB friends offered the following alternatives:
  --"I've got a topic...Socialism"
  --"How about the right to privacy issues?"
  --"Eminent domain?"
  --"The topic is me. All about me! ME, ME, ME!!!!"
  
  The last answer was offered by my buddy Gwen. I opted for her answer, as I was too tired at that point to offer alternatives. I promised I'd address some of these in the blog. I will, just not right now. More to come...

A Conversation with Ray Kurzweil

Darlene Cavalier and Bart Leahy

The questions below were submitted by our readers. Some questions were edited or combined for content. We appreciate your participation in the ongoing discussion about the Singularity. (Note: Hyperlinks added by Bart for reference.) Our thanks to Ray Kurzweil for taking the time to respond to our queries.

General and Technical Questions – What Is the Singularity?

1. What is your “short version” definition of what the Singularity is?
–Bart

RAY: The Singularity is a future time when the pace of technological change will be so fast and transformative that you will not be able to follow it unless you merge with the intelligent technology we are creating.

2. Singularity University is clearly aimed at helping to shape the Singularity and hasten its arrival. Do exponential trends really need help and, if so, can we really expect to shape them?
–Jon

RAY: The exponential growth of information technologies will continue inexorably as it has for over a century. However, technology has always been a double-edged sword ever since we developed fire and stone tools. How we apply these technologies and whether constructive applications that overcome human suffering and extend our creativity predominate over destructive applications is not preordained. That is where we can help shape the Singularity.

3. How would we recognize the Singularity happening? Would the change be gradual, or would it be similar to the singularity around a black hole--so enormous, rapid, and widespread that we wouldn’t even realize what had happened until long after we’ve crossed the point of no return?
–Marianne

RAY: The pace of information technology is continual yet exponential. Exponential trajectories have no discontinuities but are nonetheless disruptive. You describe the changes well as “enormous, rapid, widespread,” and constituting a “point of no return.”

4. Given the slow and erratic progress in AI over the past 40 years, what makes you so confident that machines will become intelligent (in the commonly understood sense) in the next 40?
–Corey

RAY: I disagree with your characterization of AI. It reminds me of people who go into the rain forest and ask, “where all the species that are supposed to be here” when there are 25 species of ants within fifty feet of them. The species in the rain forest are not seen because they are hidden in the ecostructure. Similarly, AI is all around us yet hidden in our modern economic infrastructure. Every time you send an email or connect a cell phone call intelligent algorithms route the information. Pick up a product, it’s been designed at least in part by intelligent computer assisted design software, inventory levels controlled by intelligent just-in-time inventory systems, assembled in robotic factories. AI software flies and lands airplanes, guides intelligent weapons system, automatically detects credit card fraud, helps you find information on the web, diagnoses electrocardiograms and blood cell images comparable to trained physicians, and much else. If all the AI programs were to stop tomorrow, our modern infrastructure would grind to a halt. That was not the case just fifteen years ago. These were all research projects then. On the research front, AI programs can now play master levels of go, drive cars with no human drivers through complex terrains, recognize songs and images, and so on. Now that we can see inside the brain with very high resolution we are building models and simulations of brain regions. That will accelerate AI in the years ahead.

Ethical and Social Questions

5. Why do you think it’s a good idea for us to create machines that are smarter or more powerful than human beings? Can we expect singularity to shape itself or will we still hold charge of our technological creations?
–Bart/Jasmin

RAY: The machines are not an alien invasion from Mars. It is part of our civilization which is already a human-machine civilization. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a higher branch, our tools have been extensions of ourselves. We are the only species that changes who we are based on tools we create.

6. Suppose that things continue in much the way they are now, with increasingly powerful and miniaturized wireless devices making information available wherever we want it. Does that count as a “Singularity?” It is easy for me to imagine, for instance, a brain implant that allows me to conduct Google searches purely by the power of thought—but that merging of biological and digital intelligence seems distinctly different from what you mean by a Singularity.
–Corey

RAY: Accessing the web from inside our brains is one good example of what we will see in about twenty years.. The machine extensions to our brains will grow exponentially both in hardware and software capability. By the late 2030s, it will be the nonbiological portion of our intelligence that predominates.

7. How do you see the economics of the future working/changing if everything is free?
–Bart

RAY: Who said everything will be free? We will continue to have open source and proprietary sources of information. When we have nano desktop factories that can produce physical products from information files and very inexpensive input materials, we will be able to live very well on just open source information. But there will still be an edge and demand for proprietary information. Information technologies have had an 18 percent growth rate as measured in constant dollars for the past fifty years despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it for the same cost every year. This in fact has been the source of true economic growth.

8. How close are we to getting a Star Trek-like “holodeck?”
–Jonathan

RAY: In twenty years we will be able to produce physical products from information files using nano desktop factories. This is still short of the holodeck but it will turn virtually the entire economy into an information economy.

9. How far away are we from reaching the Singularity? Is 2045 still a reasonable estimate?
–Jason

RAY: According to my models, we will multiply our biological intelligence a billion fold through its integration with nonbiological intelligence by 2045. I consider that the Singularity.

10. How do you respond to people who claim that this is just “the geek Rapture?”
–Bart

RAY: This “criticism” is based on the notion that the “rapture” came first and that we just worked backwards to justify this religious notion. But that is not where the ideas come from. They come from a scientific analysis of technology trends. Religion emerged in pre scientific times and we do need to update our philosophies based on science.

11. What is to become of people who don't want to join your Singularity and just want to remain human as they are?
–Bart

RAY: First of all, it is human to change who we are. We didn’t stay on the ground, we didn’t stay on the planet, and we have not stayed with the limitations of our biology. Human life expectancy was 23 a thousand years ago. We are the only species that changes who we are and extends our reach, both physical and mental, through our tools. So it is human to change who we are. There will always be early and late adopters, but people are not going to completely dismiss these changes. How many people today complete reject medical and health technologies? When there is a therapy based on blood cells devices that overcome a particular disease, very few if any people will reject it. People put computers in their brains today if they have Parkinson’s Disease. People do not reject this FDA approved therapy due to philosophical issues.

12. Are you pleased or disappointed with the progress made so far? What technologies are “ahead of the curve,” as you see it, which ones are behind?
–Jason

RAY: My team and I just updated the graphs that were in my 2005 book The Singularity is Near from 2002 through 2007. The exponential curves have remained precisely on track. It is pretty remarkable when you consider that what we are measuring is the innovation of millions of people.

13. Your book takes a very optimistic view of science and human nature, but neglects the problem of human evil. Given what we've done with previous “great inventions,” don't you worry that individuals or nations could do great harm with all this—accidentally or maliciously? What safeguards would be put in place to prevent this?
–Bart/Ned

RAY: I don’t know why people say I ignore the downsides when I was the one who initiated the debate about promise versus peril. Bill Joy’s WIRED cover story “Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us” was based on my book The Age of Spiritual Machines, as he acknowledges at the beginning of the article. My recent book, The Singularity is Near, has an extensive discussion of the downsides and what to do about them in chapter 8 (“The Deeply Intertwined Promise versus Peril of GNR”). The safeguards we need are twofold. We need ethical standards for responsible practitioners such as the Asilomar guidelines in biotechnology. And we need a rapid response system, basically a technological immune system, to deal with intentional abuse. We have such a system for software viruses. I am working with the U.S. Army on putting a rapid response system in place for bioengineered biological viruses.

14. What is/will be the relationship between ethics and The Singularity? The rapid growth of science/knowledge leads to many advancements via engineering, but how can/will ethics be applied when mankind can no longer keep pace?
–Paul

RAY: See my response to the previous question.

15. What are your foundational core values....specifically your belief about God and how that guides the limits of what you do?
–Rosalind

RAY: I believe that evolution is a spiritual process in that it leads to greater intelligence, creativity, beauty, and love, all of the attributes that God has been called without limit. I believe we have a responsibility to apply our ideas to overcome human suffering. We have made good progress on this. Just read Thomas Hobbes on what human life was like a few hundred years ago. He described it as short, brutish, disaster prone, disease and poverty filled. Human life expectancy was 37 just 200 years ago.

16. Space exploration is one technology you downplay in The Singularity is Near. Does your new venture with Peter Diamandis and NASA—the Singularity University—change this perspective?
–Bart

RAY: Space travel will be of key importance once we saturate the matter and energy in our midst at the physical limits of computation. We will then need to spread out to the rest of the galaxy and universe. But we will not sending missions of squishy creatures, but rather missions of nanobots swarms..

17. What is the purpose of “Singularity U?”
–Bart

RAY: The purpose of Singularity University is to bring together the most creative students and professors to study exponentially growing information technologies and to apply these ideas to meeting the grand challenges of humanity.

18. What should people do about scientific literacy so that everyone can understand, at least a basic level, the rapidly advancing technology?
–Paul

RAY: Indeed, scientific literacy needs to be a core goal of our educational system. Other countries are taking that more seriously than we are. About twenty years ago, the U.S. graduated about 60,000 engineers per year and China graduated about 10,000. Now, we graduate about the same level and China graduates about 300,000 per year.

19. What should we be *doing* about all this?
–Dan

RAY: Celebrate science and engineering as the cool subjects that they are. It is only the exponentially growing information technologies that have the scale to address the major problems of humanity.

20. In 1999, you created a hedge fund called "FatKat" (Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies) which began trading in 2006 to recognize patterns in "currency fluctuations and stock-ownership trends" and eventually beat the best human financial minds at making profitable investment decisions. Did FatKat predict the market collapse?
–Darlene

RAY: The FatKat algorithms are designed to only predict a few hours or days ahead and to do that with an accuracy that is somewhat better than chance.

21. Between the Reading Machine and the newest pocket-sized device designed to aid blind people by reading written text aloud, you’ve demonstrated a remarkable desire to help the blind. I’m curious: what sparked your interest in helping the blind?
–Darlene

RAY: In the mid 1970s I had developed a method that could recognize print in any typestyle. It was a solution in search of a problem. I happened to sit next to a blind guy on an airplane who said that his only real handicap was the inability to read ordinary print. That sparked my desire to apply this technology to build a print-to-speech reading machine..

22. You are making a movie due for release this year called The Singularity is Near: A True Story About the Future, part fiction, part non-fiction, in which you interview 20 big thinkers like our friend Marvin Minsky. I assume Marvin shares your vision on what Singularity is and will be. Do most “futurists” share your vision? Why or why not?
–Darlene

RAY: There is increasing awareness of my exponential view, but linear thinking is actually hard wired in the brain. So even otherwise sophisticated scientists often project current trends linearly into the future. They just have not studied technology trends. There is a profound difference between the intuitive linear perspective and the historically accurate exponential view. If I take thirty steps linearly (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, …) I get to 30. If I take thirty steps exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16, 32, …) I get to a billion. The latter sequence describes what has already happened. When I was a student at MIT we all shared one computer. The computer in your cell phone today is a million times cheaper than the one we all shared when I was a student, and is a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion fold increase in price performance since I was a student and we will do it again in the next 25 years. This applies not just to computation but to any technology where we can measure the underlying information properties such as bits moved around on the Internet, genetic sequencing, brain sequencing, and much else.

23. The “part non-fiction” subplot in your movie includes a computer that saves the world from self-replicating, tiny robots. Are you concerned that such microscopic robots will pose a threat to the world?
–Darlene

RAY: Yes, that is called the grey goo scenario, and the narrative thread in the movie illustrates this danger.. I do think we can manage that through a combination of ethical standards to build in safeguards into nanotechnology, as well as a rapid response system that detects threats and immediately deals with them, just like our biological immune system is designed to do. But this is not something we should be sanguine about. We need to be very diligent about it.

24. I understand it had been documented that one of your goals is to bring back your late father using AI. How can that happen?
–Darlene

RAY: Future AI’s will be intelligent to gather all of the information about a deceased person (his DNA from his gravesite, memories of people who knew him, archived records) and create a person (say a virtual person in a realistic virtual reality environment) very similar to that person, basically someone indistinguishable from that person to the people who knew him or her. For this reason I have kept about fifty boxes of my father’s archives, all of his music, letters, photographs, movies, etc. Would this person be the same person as my father, or a new person that just happens to be very similar? You can argue that if my father lived, he would be very different anyway. We change our particles every six months or less, but there is a continuity of pattern. I discuss this philosophical issue in chapter 7 of The Singularity is Near.

25. Lastly, you were clearly influenced by your parents’ and uncle’s careers. Are your children working in science/engineering fields?
–Darlene

RAY My son Ethan, age 29, works as a venture capitalist for Bessemer Ventures in Silicon valley in the area of high tech business. I often talk to him about my business strategies. He is not an inventor but he is fostering technology innovation. My daughter is a writer and artist and is writing a graphic novel as her senior project at Stanford. Interestingly, I majored in both computer science and creative writing at MIT.