Experts on the Future of Space

For a space geek like me, the nice part about living and working in Huntsville, Alabama is the ready access one can have to hearing and speaking with some of the eminent voices in the human spaceflight community. This week, a former program manager, former Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Director, and former NASA Administrator held forth at a lunch-and-learn session at MSFC's Activities Building titled "The Evolution of Space Flight from Government to Private Sector."

The talk actually mirrors the careers of Steve Cook, Dave King, and Mike Griffin, who were leading NASA, Marshall, and the Ares Projects a scant four years ago and are now all in the private sector to one extent or another. Cook and King are senior managers at Dynetics while Griffin has been an engineering professor at University of Alabama-Huntsville.

Much to my surprise, the gentlemen did not prepare any remarks. This was a straightforward ask-the-experts panel, with the audience members asking questions on a microphone or on 3X5" cards. Given the stated topic of the appearance, the questions quickly honed in on where government would most likely play and where in the space business.

Getting Started

Griffin started off the discussion, stating that he believed government should most likely fulfill the role of providing the first guaranteed market(s) for private industry, which would attract private investment. Another future role would be for the government to build what it thinks it wants first, then license the intellectual property so others could build it. However, right now Griffin believes that, "Regrettably, the market's not big enough." The biggest barrier to private-sector entry into space right now was the prohibitive cost of RDT&E (NASA-speak for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation).

Cook answered the rhetorical question, "Do we (commercial entities) have the ability to launch cargo into space? Of course. Crew? Hasn't been done yet." For Cook, the issue wasn't capacity, but market size. "Committed investment by the government could provide that and it would justify the investment."

Griffin's ideal choice of a guaranteed, lucrative government market would be providing cargo for an established lunar base. Yet he cautioned enthusiastic supporters of commercial space, stating that human spaceflight carries with it huge risks, and that while large commercial firms like Boeing might absorb the damages from a catastrophic failure, smaller firms could get wiped out.

Cook suggested future needs for the super-heavy-lift Space Launch System, including the lunar base Griffin alluded to and space solar power systems, both of which would require large payload space initially. Cook likened SLS to the Transcontinental Railroad or Interstate Highway System: a large investment made by the government for the benefit of all.

Government and Private Sector Roles

Griffin pointed out that venture capitalists like investments that give them a return on investment (ROI) ten times their initial input. Proven space-based investments like communication satellites only provide 13 to 15 percent. He pointed out that space investments are on the high end of risk for business investments. This fit well with my own personal view, and the card with my question came up next, which was "What activities do you think it's crucial for government to do in space, and what activities are crucial for the private sector?" Griffin responded that "Nobody is stopping anyone in the private sector from doing what they want in space. If they've got a proven business model, they should do it." A self-described fiscal conservative, Griffin did not think government should have a say in where the proper balance point is, that's for the citizenry to decide and for the private sector to conduct as much private activity as the market will bear.

King felt government should help the market along, taking the lead on strategic capabilities and ensure that commercial capacity is a going concern. He did point out the need to get access to low-Earth orbit (LEO) at a lower cost, but didn't make any specific recommendations as to how to effect that outcome.

Cook shifted gears a bit, talking about the regulatory environment and how government should ensure consistent safety standards for astronauts and passengers. He felt that safety standards should be the same whether someone was flying aboard a NASA spacecraft or commercial one. He also noted the difficulty in defining "commercial" missions right now (I suppose an example would be something like NASA astronauts flying aboard a private vehicle to the International Space Station--the launch provider might be getting paid, but is the flight really "commercial?") In any case, Cook felt the rules should be the same, and that would take some negotiation among NASA, the FAA, and private industry.

The Long View

The panel also touched on international affairs, with Griffin stating emphatically that "Space is a strategic human frontier for the future" and that the only way to ensure that Western values and practices such as freedom and capitalism are continued as human civilization expands outward is for the United States to participate. However, the entrepreneurial investments would not occur without a long-term commitment by the U.S. government to space activities.

The Local View

Someone asked what Dynetics' new rocket-launching partnership with SpaceX and Scaled Composites, Stratolaunch, would mean for Huntsville. Dave King felt that the Stratolaunch vehicle would be able to transform how we view space tourism, space launch, and other activities. Stratolaunch is based in Huntsville, and Dynetics has responsibility for a major component of the system as well as systems integration. One side effect would be to bring more commercial space activity to Huntsville, which King felt was too dependent on the government dollar anyway.

Life "Outside the Gate"

Marshall Space Flight Center is situated in the middle of Redstone Arsenal, which is the property of the U.S. Army and thus "gated" off from the general public. A member of the audience asked the panel about the difference in their lives outside the gate. Cook was the first to answer. He talked about the similarities first, emphasizing the need for a manager to communicate a clear vision and to get employee buy-in for what you're trying to do. He also felt the employees' passion for the work was kindred. The biggest differences he cited were the smaller bureaucracy and the lack of distinction between "institutional" and "project" functions. King felt that privately held companies could make longer-term decisions with fewer rules and less institutional friction when it comes to making decisions. Griffin added that there was less work in the private sector related to "grooming the institution."

One thing King suggested to anyone interested in jumping outside the gate was that the individual should pick an environment where the values match yours. Along similar lines, Cook stated that you need to "hold onto your core values, but be willing to change everything else" to adapt to the market environment.

What Next?

Someone had to ask the magic question: "How do we assure long-term support for programs that take 20 to 30 years to execute?" Griffin, typical of his sense of humor, responded, "Why are you asking me when I'm obviously inadequate to the task?" Still, Griffin felt that long-term support for large national programs are possible. He cited examples such as the Transcontinental Railroad system, which took over 50 years to complete; the Social Security system; and maintaining funding for the armed forces. He believes NASA has long-term public support. However, Griffin did not agree with the administration's call for a mission to an asteroid: "You're not going to have long-term support for a vision when the goals make no sense."

Another question concerned keeping the workforce motivated in periods of institutional or programmatic uncertainty. The advice wasn't too unfamiliar: decide what you want to be passionate about, focus on what you can control, and "Run to the fire, go find some hard problems to try to solve and be bold about it."

Parting Thoughts

Returning to themes that began their discussion, the panel members reiterated their belief that the future of commercial spaceflight wouldn't be too promising without a guaranteed government market as a matter of public policy. Griffin noted that "Europe sees the strategic value of owning the space launch market. What's wrong with us that we do not?"

Dave King had one of the closing comments of the afternoon in responding to the ongoing rivalry between government and commercial space, stating that people were focusing on an unnecessary conflict. He wished "we could see value in each, concentrate on the genius of the 'And' instead of the tyranny of the 'Or'."

We'll see what happens next.

Dodging Bullets

Okay, so I just dodged a major bullet...at least for 90 days. My company managed to find work for me and my four coworkers through the end of September, each doing different things. I myself will be helping the Engineering Directorate write (internal) proposals that will, hopefully, result in more work for the Center come the new fiscal year. Mind you, I might be going through this soap opera again in three months, but for now I can pay bills, and I consider that a blessing and a win.


Stay tuned. No doubt more drama to come.

How Do You Keep a Space Geek in Suspense?

I've never really enjoyed thriller or "suspense" movies because I don't enjoy anxiety in the real world. Case in point: the last week, month, or heck, year or two with regard to my job. No wonder I have grey hair.

So I guess I should clarify my status a bit. My company's ability to charge labor hours to the Constellation Program will cease June 30. In practical terms, that means my company needs to find other work for the five of us or we'll be out on the street. We'll know more Monday. Maybe. Or perhaps not. Right now we just don't know! I could end up doing work elsewhere within NASA, or I could be job hunting on Thursday. I appreciate that they're trying--and it's a lot easier with five people than dozens or hundreds--but the not-knowing and the stress get to be a bit much after awhile. My goal is to get out of town today. Somewhere, anywhere. Just get the heck out so I don't have to think about this foolishness. I have about two hours of leave left, so a vacation isn't an option--nor is it particularly smart, given potentially constrained finances.

A lot of my friends are in a similar sort of limbo. Those on "stop work" orders still have their NASA badges and (in some cases) their personal effects in the office, but are at home with or without pay until the Program decides what can or can't be done. I wouldn't want the boss's job on July 1. It's going to be very sad and very creepy in Marshall's Building 4203 come Thursday.

Downsizing

Okay, so you want to know what it's like to work in the midst of a massive layoff? No, you really don't. It's not just you (or me) losing a job. It's your closest friends and coworkers. And the folks down the hall. And the bulk of the folks you work with or just see in the hallways on a daily basis--50, 70, 100, 200 people? And knowing that there are more job cuts coming. It sucks, thanks for asking.

I maintain my professionalism because I still love my job. And that's perhaps the maddening part of all of this. We're not being let go because we're slackers or bad workers. We're just not wanted. Or too expensive to keep on the payroll. Or whatever. They might or will call some folks back, but for the rest, it's a trip to the unemployment office and a lot of hard thinking ahead.

I'm bringing snacks and a positive attitude to work tomorrow because the alternatives aren't any prettier. Might as well keep that Disney smile on, right? Right.

Potpourri LXXXIV

What's next? How about a bill to investigate behavioral modifcation to change the way your kids consume energy?

Ridley Scott is going to direct a prequel to his visceral (literally) movie Alien. Can someone explain what consumer need this meets?

Here's a summary of recommendations made to the Augustine Panel by Robert Lightfoot, Acting Director of Marshall Space Flight Center:

First, we need to extend the ISS. We continue to use this magnificent platform to learn how to live and work in space. Whether it is studying the effects of long-term exposure on the human body or whether it is simply learning how to do maintenance of critical systems that have issues, we are building a ton of “scar tissue” which will help us make those next steps in longer duration and longer distance space travel.
Second, we need to get out of low earth orbit. I believe the Constellation architecture is one of the possibilities to do this, and we’re making progress every day but – however you frame it – we need a heavy lift capability. However, no matter what recommendations you provide, I would hope you set an expectation that there will be bumps along the way and that should not distract us from our goal.
Third, as has been stated in just about every one of these Commissions and reports, I would hope you would state again that any policy has to come with the resources.
Fourth, I believe there is more room for collaboration with the international partners, commercial operators, and other government agencies. I think if we can get past the tyranny of “or” – “commercial or NASA” – and recognize the power of “and” – "commercial and NASA” – we will go a long way toward taking advantage of the space economy.
Finally, I would hope each of you would think about what got you interested in human spaceflight and for a brief moment move away from the architectures, the scenarios and budget and ask yourselves “Why human spaceflight?” I believe a section in your report dedicated to “Why human spaceflight?” and presented to the President from such a highly respected group would be a powerful message indeed. A lot of us “grounded” explorers lived the experience of human spaceflight through those that got to travel like Dr. Chiao and Dr. Ride, and while we cannot share the same feelings, we can share the sense of accomplishment of turning the impossible into the possible. It will inspire the next generation, as you heard from our students. It provides us a place of leadership as a country – something we have given away in so many areas – and it will provide technical and economic benefits that we can’t even begin to predict.

Speaking of the Augustine Panel (yet again), the Space Frontier Foundation put out a press release hailing the Panel's belief that "the underlying reason why we do human spaceflight is the extension of human civilization beyond Earth." Great! That's more or less the vision and mission statements of the National Space Society. One wonders what shape our human spaceflight program will take to achieve that end.

NASA and the CAFE standards people announced an efficiency contest today to spur development of fuel-efficient aircraft. This program might actually work.

From Frank at MarsDrive, a pretty good blog on some of the ugly facts facing the government-run space program. Ugly fact #1: THE PUBLIC AREN’T INTERESTED IN SENDING PEOPLE TO MARS.

And that'll do for now. Happy Friday.

Potpourri LXXI

Doc and I have been engaged in an extended discussion about the frog-marching of Sarah Palin out of the public square. The DUDE (Down Under Defense Expert) brought a Peggy Noonan column to my attention about this. As I noted in my discussion with Doc, I didn't do my due diligence on Palin's positions/papers--most of what I caught about her came from sound bytes--some good, some not so good. It appears, if one reads Noonan's column, that Palin really didn't have a lot of positions explaining the foundations of her beliefs. My choices in 2008, after my original choices dropped out of the GOP race (Thompson, Romney), were bad (McCain), mad (Paul), or frickin' sad(Obama or Clinton).

I can understand mockery, for instance Palin's flubs in interviews, but what continues to bother me is the vitriol--the visceral hatred critics displayed toward Palin and George W. Bush before her. It's one thing to disagree with one's opponents; it's another to consider them the Devil Incarnate or some retarded human being worthy only of contempt. I didn't hate Sarah Palin, nor would I mock her. I think she's a nice lady with a lot of spunk and an ability to fire up a crowd. She supported causes I agree with: pro-life, pro-oil drilling in ANWR, and pro-gun, for instance. The few speeches of hers I've heard or read seemed to articulate those views pretty well, so I don't understand the "lightweight" comments, nor do I agree with Ms. Noonan that Palin was utterly out of her depth on the issues. Might she have been better off staying off the radar in Alaska? Perhaps. But the drama is over. With any luck we can move off of Palin, Michael Jackson, and Farrah Fawcett and move back to things that actually matter, like the economy, Iran, North Korea, missile defense, etc.--you know: the issues--all of which President Obama is handling not handling well, I might add.

Rocketplane Kistler is looking at Hawaii as a possible base of operations for space tourism flights, as well as possible transportation services.

Big aerospace companies met with Senator Shelby (R-AL) to discuss their plans for supporting the Ares Projects. This line from a Shelby aide was telling: "it appeared that the aerospace contractors did not have a public support strategy." A couple of reasons for this come to mind: while Big Aero has big contracts with NASA for Ares, they might just as easily pick up other contracts if the administration decided to cancel Ares. They probably also see what kinds of negative press Shelby is getting regarding his efforts to pull money from other NASA centers that support COTS so he can protect Ares jobs in Huntsville. Mind you, I'm one of those jobs in Huntsville, and a Republican, but I think Shelby's funding games are shortsighted. We need COTS and Ares as multiple means of access to the International Space Station. I might have to write another letter.

Need a poster of the X-15 hypersonic aircraft? NASA has one you can download.

The Charles Bolden/Lori Garver confirmation hearings appeared to be a lovefest. NASA should have a new Administrator soon.

America is in no danger of being taken over by an iron-fisted tyrant. However, we might find ourselves smothered under a cloying, will-do-anything-for-you Mommy State if we're not careful. This article on cafeteria snacks also comes from the DUDE. His commentary is priceless:

In the second month after they won the election, the centre-right government down here rescinded the law passed by the previous leftist government that required government approval of what snack food would be sold in schools. The reason given, which set off days of strident yawping our nanny-staters, was that parents should be the ones to decide what foods their kids should eat.

Life Returning to Normal at MSFC

Some progress in Northern Alabama.

Marshall Center to resume normal business operations beginning Monday, May 4.

The Marshall Space Flight Center will resume normal business operations beginning Monday, May 4. This includes the Marshall Child Development Center, which will reopen. A liberal leave policy had been put into effect May 1, as a preventive measure against the H1N1 virus (swine flu). Employees should contact their supervisors if they have circumstances that may require them to be on leave.

Marshall Center management is continuing to take appropriate precautions to ensure the safety and well being of all Marshall employees and their families in the wake of the identification of the virus, and will provide updates as necessary.

For H1N1 virus (swine flu) information visit, http://inside.msfc.nasa.gov/er/swine_flu_info.html

To follow NASA on Facebook, specifically NASA Marshall, and Twitter, visit http://www.nasa.gov/collaborate/index.html.

Potpourri XXX

For those of you new to this site, this is NOT a porn site, so get that "XXX" idea out of your head. If you want to stick around and get educated and entertained a little bit, by all means, stick around. For the rest of you, I offer another set of odd links and bits that struck my fancy. Read on!

NASA's Mercury MESSENGER planetary orbiter has found signs that the planet Mercury had an active, volcanic past and a highly variable magnetosphere.

AvWeb posted a PDF of a document that looks like an FAA notice to air traffic controllers in the New York City area. Never seen one of these before, but it looks plausible. Still not expecting an apology from the president.

A notice from Robin Henderson, Associate Director at Marshall Space Flight Center, regarding the H1N1 flu:

Message from Robin Henderson, Associate Director
In light of last evening’s Madison County Emergency Management Agency’s (EMA) announcements, I am writing to assure you that we are following Marshall’s Emergency Management Plan concerning Pandemic Disease Events. We are taking all appropriate precautions to ensure the safety and well being of all Marshall employees and their families.
We want everyone to know that there is no medical emergency at this time. Thus far, no H1N1 virus (swine) flu cases have been identified on Redstone Arsenal.
As a precautionary measure, to protect the health of all those under the age of 18, all youth activities and operations on the Arsenal will be suspended through Sunday, May 3. This suspension includes the Marshall Child Development Center. Redstone Arsenal has suspended all Redstone related School Age Services, Youth Services and associated youth sporting events, as well as Chapel Youth events and worship services involving children.
Additionally, the Saturday, May 2, Morale Welfare and Recreation Block Party has also been postponed. As has been announced, Marshall Space Flight Center has issued a liberal leave policy, except for emergency essential personnel, effective today and tomorrow, for those employees who need to care for their children or feel the need to stay away from a public environment. A decision will be made if continuation of the liberal leave policy is necessary beyond Sunday, May 3.

If you and/or a family member have flu-like symptoms – fever, body aches, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting or diarrhea – contact your health care provider. Your health care provider will determine whether influenza testing or treatment is needed. If you are sick, you should stay home and avoid all contact with other people to keep from spreading your illness to others. We are asking that you not go to the medical center with these symptoms as this is contrary to Center for Disease Control
recommendations.

If you and/or a family member becomes ill and experiences any of the following warning signs, seek emergency medical care:

In children, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include: fast breathing or trouble breathing, bluish skin color, not drinking enough fluids, not waking up or not interacting, being so irritable that the child does not want to be held, flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough, fever with a rash.

In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include: difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen,
sudden dizziness, confusion.

For information about precautions, follow this link to the CDC’s Swine Flu Website: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm

Recommendations on any further actions the Center or Agency may take will be released through Marshall communications vehicles. Please be advised that we will utilize multiple communication vehicles to ensure that you are informed and updated as further information or decisions become available. Latest information also is available by phone, call (256)544-HELP, Option 5.

On my end of things, I turned in my emergency contact information to the powers that be so they know who to contact if I get a sniffle. Sigh...I know it's serious. I just shake my head in dismay at the near-overreaction to things.

NASAWatch's snark drives me up the wall, but they do link to some interesting news sites. I suggest reading the news stories connected with layoffs at Kennedy Space Center and possible changes to the Constellation Program's ends and architecture.

An adult beverage recommendation from long-lost-high-school-buddy Joanna: Evan Williams whiskey, just in time for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

New internet nomenclature from Doc:

astroturfing, v. An internet practice whereby companies have employees create artificial “grassroots” movements to gin up support for their products.

More Email on Gen Y

From a reader:

I think that the crux of your skepticism is reflected in this comment: "Another issue I have ... is that they emphasize collaborative technological tools but do not specify how these tools will enable people to make fundamentally better contributions than they might make through, say, face-to-face meetings, phone calls, or memos."

To me, this is the real question. A co-research[er] and I are exploring this through case studies of innovations that owe a large portion of their development success to Web 2.0 collaborative tools, including social networking and virtual worlds. We've just begun this research and are still looking for cases, but we've already learned there does seem to be some validity to the claim that these tools can be beneficial. I hope to be able to report back in a few months with a few examples.

Steve Gordon (gordon@babson.edu)

Steve:

Thanks for reading and chiming in. Please know that it's not just me who is skeptical. I work and talk with many Boomers and Xers who belong to the "show me the money" faction in this discussion. Also, within NASA, it's not just about the electronic/communication collaboration. For a lot of folks it comes down to the hardware, the actual rockets that put astronauts into space. Marshall might be among the most conservative NASA centers from an engineering and cultural point of view, but they are not alone. Any engineering lead will need to be shown that online collaboration creates/created better rockets/spacecraft/widgets than empirically bending metal and turning wrenches on the shop floor.

I look forward to seeing the results of your research. Hard data is something that will very much "show me the money."